Betting On A Bounce: How To Play The Housing Sector With ETF’S
Will Swarts from Smart Money reports that “It’s been over a year since the housing sector imploded. Yet, it’s still at the epicenter of the current economic crisis. Many market watchers are pinning any chance of a broad recovery on housing pulling one off first, so the data emerging out of the sector is closely watched. Indeed, while most investors have steered clear of the industry, other opportunistic ones are reading into the numbers and predicting housing will make a remarkable rebound over the next few years. They are even betting billions of dollars by investing in housing-related mutual funds, exchange-traded funds and individual stocks. The big question: If they are right should you jump in, too?”
All eyes continue to be on the data though, and it shows that everyone wants to jump in the housing market at the bottom. Swarts goes on to say that the data is contradictory. “For every piece of news that seems to point to a bottom occurring there is another that shows there’s still room to fall further. One detail that can’t be denied: Since the 2006 peak of national property values, average home prices are down nearly a third, back to levels last seen in the fourth quarter of 2002,” Will Swarts Reports.
If you believe the housing market has bottomed out, Will Swarts provides some options to dip into the housing market. “Instead of trying to predict which individual home builder will recover first, a less-risky option may be to buy an exchange-traded funds that owns a basket of housing-related stocks. SPDR S&P Homebuilders (XHB) is an ETF that counts Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s (LOW), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), Sherwin Williams (SHW) and D.R. Horton among its top holdings. The iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction fund (ITB) tracks an index that includes Toll Brothers, KB Home (KBH) and Meritage Home (MTH). Both are widely traded and cheap. But they can also swing wildly on a daily basis, especially when data is released.”
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We ran these two ETF’s through the market club software and found the following results from their chart analysis program:
SPDR S&P HMBLDRS INDEX FUND (PACF:XHB)
Smart Scan Chart Analysis shows the current downward trend is at a crossroads and has possibly ended. Look for choppy trading action in the nearterm Very Weak Downtrend with very tight stops.
Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, XHB scored -60 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):
| +10 | Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Average | ||
| -15 | New 3 Day Low on Friday | ||
| -20 | Last Price Below 20 Day Moving Average | ||
| -25 | New 3 Week Low, Week Ending May 30th | ||
| +30 | New 3 Month High in May | ||
| -60 | Total Score | ||
iShares DJ US HOME CONSTRUCTION (PACF:ITB)
Smart Scan Chart Analysis shows the current downward trend is at a crossroads and has possibly ended. Look for choppy trading action in the nearterm Very Weak Downtrend with very tight stops.
Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, ITB scored -60 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):
| +10 | Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Average | ||
| -15 | New 3 Day Low on Friday | ||
| -20 | Last Price Below 20 Day Moving Average | ||
| -25 | New 3 Week Low, Week Ending May 30th | ||
| +30 | New 3 Month High in May | ||
| -60 | Total Score | ||



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