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Gold Miner ETFs May Lead The Next Leg Up In The Gold Bull Market

January 20th, 2010

gold-miner“The dollar is breaking down, and our indicators for the gold mining stocks have turned bullish once again. The awful December employment report dealt a blow to the post-December US dollar bear market rally. I’ve had my doubts all along, since the cards are not in place for a vigorous economic recovery—at least not yet. The Dollar Index had been smashed to bits heading into December and was long overdue for a rally. I think we’ve had that rally for now or until the next important batch of economic data. The market has been too aggressive discounting rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this summer; it won’t happen. The Fed has never raised interest rates when the unemployment rate is rising. This is dollar-bearish action,” Eric Roseman Reports From Money Show.

Roseman continues saying “Despite the biggest bull market in history for gold, the majority of junior and mid-sized mining companies has struggled this decade because of soaring input costs, labor, and poor management. You’ve gone nowhere in most of these stocks over the last decade. But the next phase of this bull market will probably see more speculative mines taken over by the bigger boys as the latter seek to grow their reserves through acquisitions in an era of declining gold production and soaring costs. The big boys have the balance sheets and the cash, while the junior mines—at least the stronger prospects—will increasingly find themselves sought after as buyouts accelerate.”

“This week, we’re buying the recently issued Van Eck Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDXJ). This new ETF holds a diversified basket of terrific prospects, Rubicon Minerals, which we liked last August at $2.85. RBY now trades at $5.21 or an 83% return. Many other stocks have this or similar potential in GDXJ. In fact, most of the juniors have gone through the roof since last spring as gold prices continue to hit new highs. But compared to where they should be trading over the next 12 months, I think they’re cheap. I’m pretty convinced you’ll see a mania or “bubble” materialize for this group as gold heads higher, supported by rising mergers activity, courtesy of the large-cap gold mines,” Roseman Reports.

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Here are some details on the gold miner ETF’s (GDX) and (GDXJ) below:

The Funds (GDXJ) investment objective is to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index (the “Junior Gold Miners Index”). For a further description of the Junior Gold Miners Index, see “Junior Gold Miners Index.”

Fund Holdings of (GDXJ) as of 12/09        
No. Holding Ticker Shares Market Value % of net assets
1 Coeur d’Alene Mines Corp. (CDE) US 56,910 $1,191,695.40 6.42%
2 Silver Standard Resources (SSRI) US 51,510 $1,003,414.80 5.40%
3 New Gold Inc (NGD) CN 251,160 $972,587.72 5.24%
4 Hecla Mining Co (HL) US 177,285 $946,701.90 5.10%
5 Gammon Gold Inc (GRS) US 89,085 $878,378.10 4.73%
6 Alamos Gold Inc (AGI) CN 80,610 $808,060.57 4.35%
7 Silvercorp Metals Inc (SVM) CN 117,615 $712,342.27 3.84%
8 Semafo Inc (SMF) CN 187,800 $707,530.16 3.81%
9 European Goldfields Ltd (EGU) CN 95,100 $648,543.09 3.49%
10 Golden Star Resources Ltd (GSS) US 175,590 $598,761.90 3.22%
11 Northgate Minerals Corp (NXG) US 192,960 $567,302.40 3.06%
12 Kingsgate Consolidated Ltd (KCN) AU 65,010 $548,420.73 2.95%
13 Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG) CN 52,200 $545,176.21 2.94%
14 San Gold Corp (SGR) CN 185,925 $530,226.29 2.86%
15 Aurizon Mines Ltd (ARZ) CN 112,455 $528,783.59 2.85%
16 Novagold Resources Inc (NG) US 97,935 $509,262.00 2.74%
17 Andean Resources Ltd (AND) CN 229,485 $503,424.58 2.71%
18 Gabriel Resources Ltd (GBU) CN 147,360 $444,139.06 2.39%
19 Minefinders Corp (MFN) US 43,560 $433,857.60 2.34%
20 Allied Nevada Gold Corp (ANV) US 38,055 $428,499.30 2.31%
21 Ventana Gold Corp (VEN) CN 38,040 $420,147.07 2.26%
22 Rubicon Minerals Corp (RMX) CN 99,240 $411,744.96 2.22%
23 Great Basin Gold Ltd (GBG) CN 251,820 $393,900.33 2.12%
24 Lake Shore Gold Corp (LSG) CN 92,505 $355,567.89 1.91%
25 St Barbara Ltd (SBM) AU 1,032,395 $343,436.08 1.85%
26 Kirkland Lake Gold Inc (KGI) CN 38,685 $332,075.92 1.79%
27 Avoca Resources Ltd (AVO) AU 194,325 $333,011.01 1.79%
28 Fronteer Development Group  (FRG) US 79,110 $328,306.50 1.77%
29 Romarco Minerals Inc (R) CN 245,175 $327,383.28 1.76%
30 Medusa Mining Ltd (MML) AU 77,745 $284,326.89 1.53%
31 Detour Gold Corp (DGC) CN 20,685 $271,275.45 1.46%
32 Gold Wheaton Gold Corp (GLW) CN 759,960 $217,452.43 1.17%
33 Dominion Mining Ltd (DOM) AU 55,260 $202,474.00 1.09%
34 Real Gold Mining Ltd (246 HK) 127,500 $194,484.35 1.05%
35 Colossus Minerals Inc (CSI) CN 37,230 $187,135.39 1.01%
36 U S Gold Corp (UXG) US 61,875 $167,681.25 0.90%
37 Avocet Mining Plc (AVM) LN 97,665 $156,218.24 0.84%
38 Lingbao Gold Co Ltd-H (3330 HK) 210,000 $81,009.51 0.44%

The investment (GDX) seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the AMEX Gold Miners index. The fund generally normally invests at least 80% of its total assets in common stocks and American depositary receipts (ADRs) of companies involved in the gold mining industry. The fund is nondiversified.

Fund Holdings of (GDX) as of 12/09        
No. Holding Ticker Shares Market Value % of net assets
1 Barrick Gold Corp (ABX) 18,718,639 $783,749,414.93 14.49%
2 Goldcorp Inc (GG) 14,249,524 $614,011,989.16 11.36%
3 Newmont Mining Corp (NEM) 9,475,288 $470,353,296.32 8.70%
4 AngloGold Ashanti Ltd (AU) 6,999,199 $304,045,204.56 5.62%
5 Lihir Gold Ltd (LIHR) 8,569,682 $265,317,354.72 4.93%
6 Cia de Minas Buenaventura (BVN) 7,114,374 $263,587,556.70 4.87%
7 Yamana Gold Inc (AUY) 21,130,631 $259,484,148.68 4.80%
8 Randgold Resources Ltd (GOLD) 3,203,698 $255,110,471.74 4.72%
9 Kinross Gold Corp (KGC) 13,436,964 $252,883,662.48 4.68%
10 IAMGOLD Corp (IAG) 14,744,197 $251,536,000.82 4.65%
11 Gold Fields Ltd (GFI) 16,291,819 $229,714,647.90 4.25%
12 Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd (AEM) US 3,748,931 $223,736,202.08 4.14%
13 Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO) 16,025,187 $207,205,667.91 3.83%
14 Silver Wheaton Corp (SLW) 13,420,202 $199,692,605.76 3.69%
15 Harmony Gold Mining Co (HMY) 17,100,638 $175,452,545.88 3.24%
16 Pan American Silver Corp (PAAS) 3,501,327 $82,036,091.61 1.52%
17 Royal Gold Inc (RGLD) 1,636,283 $81,715,973.02 1.51%
18 Coeur d’Alene Mines Corp. (CDE) US 3,026,689 $63,378,867.66 1.17%
19 New Gold Inc (NGD) 15,532,015 $59,176,977.15 1.09%
20 Silver Standard Resources (SSRI) US 2,878,399 $56,071,212.52 1.04%
21 Hecla Mining Co (HL) US 9,493,058 $50,692,929.72 0.94%
22 Gammon Gold Inc (GRS) US 4,993,219 $49,233,139.34 0.91%
23 Seabridge Gold Inc (SA) 1,505,674 $35,142,431.16 0.65%
24 Golden Star Resources Ltd (GSS) US 9,492,472 $32,369,329.52 0.60%
25 Aurizon Mines Ltd (AZK) 6,375,413 $30,219,457.62 0.56%
26 Northgate Minerals Corp (NXG) US 10,274,632 $30,207,418.08 0.56%
27 Minefinders Corp (MFN) US 2,376,917 $23,674,093.32 0.44%
28 Great Basin Gold Ltd (GBG) 13,386,929 $20,883,609.24 0.39%
29 Nevsun Resources Ltd (NSU) 5,149,665 $14,882,531.85 0.28%
30 Tanzanian Royalty Exploration (TRE) 3,603,954 $12,469,680.84 0.23%
31 Cash   6,655,296 $6,655,380.14 0.12%
32 Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) CN 1,705,026 $4,569,469.68 0.08%

Chart for Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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ETF BASIC NEWS, NYSE:GDX, NYSE:GDXJ


 

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