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The Outlook For Real Estate And Bank ETFs Is Still Very Bearish

March 4th, 2010

bearish“Before looking at the short-term picture, let’s take a look at another bearish discrepancy – real estate. January new home sales were expected to clock in at 354,000 (at an annual pace). The actual numbers came in at a record low 309,000. Home prices dropped 2.4% and the supply of homes at the current sales rate increased to 9.1 months worth, the highest since May 2009,” Simon Maierhofer Reports From ETF Guide.

Maierhofer goes on to say, “Some 4.5 million homes are expected to hit the foreclosure market this year. As a point of reference, “only” 2.8 million homes were foreclosed in 2009. Over 42% of adjustable-rate mortgages were seriously delinquent and one in five homeowners was underwater in Q4 (according to Zillow.com). Even the director of economics at Moody’s (the same company that rated AIG as A+) expects home prices to continue falling through the end of the year. It is no secret that Moody’s outlook is generally on the rosy side. What are the implications of this scenario?”

“If real estate (NYSEArca: IYR) does not recover, neither will banks’ (NYSEArca: KBE) toxic assets. Even though most have forgotten about toxic assets, it doesn’t mean they have miraculously disappeared. It makes sense that the FDIC has shut down over 22 banks already this year, following the 140 banks in 2009, most of which are regional banks (NYSEArca: KRE). More directly than even the bank/financial sector (NYSEArca: XLF), real estate ETFs such as the iShares Cohen & Steers Realty Majors (NYSEArca: ICF), SPDRs Dow Jones REIT ETF (NYSEArca: RWR) and Vanguard REIT ETF (NYSEArca: VNQ) are about to get hit. The only ETFs to benefit from falling real estate prices are the UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (NYSEArca: SRS) and Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3x Shares (NYSEArca: DRV). Both ETFs are suitable for experienced investors only,” Maierhofer Reports.

See The Full Story: HERE

We have put together some details for all the ETF’s mentioned including some of the top holdings in each ETF:

The investment (IYR) seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index. The fund generally invests at least 90% of assets in securities of the underlying index and depositary receipts representing securities of the underlying index. It may invest the remainder of assets in securities not included in the underlying index but which BGFA believes will help the fund track underlying index, and in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, options and swaps as well as cash and cash equivalents, including shares of money market funds advised by BGFA. It is nondiversified.

TOP 10 HOLDINGS ( 41.11% OF TOTAL ASSETS)  
 
Company Symbol % Assets
Annaly Capital Management Inc C (NLY) 3.8
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. Com (AVB) 2.65
Boston Properties, Inc. Common (BXP) 3.68
Equity Residential Common Share (EQR) 3.67
HCP, Inc. Common Stock (HCP) 3.52
Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. Com (HST) 2.92
Public Storage Common Stock (PSA) 4.15
Simon Property Group, Inc. Comm (SPG) 9.01
Ventas, Inc. Common Stock (VTR) 2.71
Vornado Realty Trust Common Sto (VNO) 5

Chart for iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (IYR)

The investment (KBE) seeks to replicate the performance of the KBW Bank index. The fund uses a passive management strategy designed to track the total return performance of the Bank index. It is nondiversified.

TOP 10 HOLDINGS ( 60.08% OF TOTAL ASSETS)  
 
Company Symbol % Assets
Bank of America Corporation Com (BAC) 9.06
Bank of New York Mellon Corpora (BK) 4.33
BB&T Corporation Common Stock (BBT) 4.26
Citigroup, Inc. Common Stock (C) 7.93
JP Morgan Chase & Co. Common St (JPM) 7.22
M&T Bank Corporation Common Sto (MTB) 4.55
Regions Financial Corporation C (RF) 4.01
SunTrust Banks, Inc. Common Sto (STI) 4.11
U.S. Bancorp Common Stock (USB) 6.69
Wells Fargo & Company Common St (WFC) 7.92

 Chart for SPDR KBW Bank (KBE)

The investment (KRE) seeks to replicate the total return performance, before expenses, of the KBW Regional Banking index. The fund uses a passive management strategy designed to track the total return performance of the KBW Regional Banking index. The index is a float adjusted modified-market capitalization weighted index of geographically diverse companies representing mortgage banks, loan processors, marketing and service institutions listed on U.S. stock markets. The fund is nondiversified.

TOP 10 HOLDINGS ( 25.34% OF TOTAL ASSETS)  
 
Company Symbol % Assets
Bank of Hawaii Corporation Comm (BOH) 2.61
CVB Financial Corporation (CVBF) 2.72
FirstMerit Corporation (FMER) 2.49
Fulton Financial Corporation (FULT) 2.62
MB Financial Inc. (MBFI) 2.56
Old National Bancorp Capital Tr (ONB) 2.55
PacWest Bancorp (PACW) 2.52
Signature Bank (SBNY) 2.4
SVB Financial Group (SIVB) 2.46
Umpqua Holdings Corporation (UMPQ) 2.41

Chart for SPDR KBW Regional Banking (KRE)

The investment (XLF) includes companies from the following industries: banks, diversified financials, insurance and real estate. The fund will normally invest at least 95% of its total assets in common stocks that comprise the relevant Select Sector Index. This fund has adopted a policy that requires it to provide shareholders with at least 60 days notice prior to any significant material change in its policy or its underlying index. It is nondiversified.

TOP 10 HOLDINGS ( 55.81% OF TOTAL ASSETS)  
 
Company Symbol % Assets
American Express Company Common (AXP) 3.37
Bank of America Corporation Com (BAC) 10.47
Bank of New York Mellon Corpora (BK) 2.36
Citigroup, Inc. Common Stock (C) 4.52
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) (GS) 6.08
JP Morgan Chase & Co. Common St (JPM) 11.49
MetLife, Inc. Common Stock (MET) 2.03
Morgan Stanley Common Stock (MS) 2.82
U.S. Bancorp Common Stock (USB) 3.01
Wells Fargo & Company Common St (WFC) 9.66

Chart for Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF)

The investment (ICF) seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Cohen & Steers Realty Majors index. The fund generally invests at least 90% assets in securities of the underlying index and depositary receipts representing securities of the underlying index. It may invest the remainder of its assets in securities not included in the underlying index but which BGFA believes will help the fund track the underlying index, and in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, options and swaps as well as cash and cash equivalents. The fund is nondiversified.

TOP 10 HOLDINGS ( 58.97% OF TOTAL ASSETS)  
 
Company Symbol % Assets
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. Com (AVB) 4.38
Boston Properties, Inc. Common (BXP) 6.2
Equity Residential Common Share (EQR) 6.17
HCP, Inc. Common Stock (HCP) 5.97
Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. Com (HST) 4.81
ProLogis Share of Beneficial In (PLD) 4.04
Public Storage Common Stock (PSA) 7.36
Simon Property Group, Inc. Comm (SPG) 8.17
Ventas, Inc. Common Stock (VTR) 4.56
Vornado Realty Trust Common Sto (VNO) 7.31

Chart for iShares Cohen & Steers Realty Majors (ICF)

The investment (RWR) seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the total return of the Dow Jones U.S. Select REIT index. The fund uses a passive management strategy designed to track the total return performance of the Wilshire REIT index. The subadviser seeks a correlation of 0.95 or better between the fund’s performance and the performance of the index. It is nondiversified.

TOP 10 HOLDINGS ( 46.74% OF TOTAL ASSETS)  
 
Company Symbol % Assets
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. Com (AVB) 3.1
Boston Properties, Inc. Common (BXP) 4.32
Equity Residential Common Share (EQR) 4.3
HCP, Inc. Common Stock (HCP) 4.12
Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. Com (HST) 3.44
ProLogis Share of Beneficial In (PLD) 3.01
Public Storage Common Stock (PSA) 4.86
Simon Property Group, Inc. Comm (SPG) 10.56
Ventas, Inc. Common Stock (VTR) 3.18
Vornado Realty Trust Common Sto (VNO) 5.85

Chart for SPDR Dow Jones REIT (RWR)

The investment (VNQ) seeks to provide a high level of income and moderate long-term capital appreciation. The fund normally invests approximately 98% of assets in stocks issued by equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) in an attempt to track the investment performance of the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) US REIT Index.

TOP 10 HOLDINGS ( 43.46% OF TOTAL ASSETS)  
 
Company Symbol % Assets
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. Com (AVB) 2.83
Boston Properties, Inc. Common (BXP) 4.36
Equity Residential Common Share (EQR) 4.1
HCP, Inc. Common Stock (HCP) 4.08
Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. Com (HST) 3.4
ProLogis Share of Beneficial In (PLD) 2.57
Public Storage Common Stock (PSA) 4.63
Simon Property Group, Inc. Comm (SPG) 9.57
Ventas, Inc. Common Stock (VTR) 2.94
Vornado Realty Trust Common Sto (VNO) 4.98

Chart for Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ)

The investment (SRS) seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, which correspond to twice the inverse of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate index. The fund normally invests 80% of assets in financial instruments with economic characteristics that should be inverse to those of the index. It may employ leveraged investment techniques in seeking its investment objective. The fund is nondiversified.

Chart for UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS)

The investment (DRV) seeks to replicate, net of expenses, 300% of the inverse daily performance of the MSCI US REIT Index The fund will invest at least 80% of assets in securities that comprise the index. It will also utilize financial instruments that, in combination, provide leveraged and unleveraged exposure to the index. The fund is nondiversified.

Chart for Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shrs (DRV)

 

 

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ETF BASIC NEWS, ICF, IYR, KBE, KRE, NYSE:DRV, RWR, SRS, VNQ, XLF


 

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