John Paulson Predicts Housing Prices to Rise 3-5% This Year, Play The Rise With These ETFs
John Paulson, the hedge-fund manager who made $15 billion shorting the real estate market, said Monday that he expects housing prices to rise between 3 and 5 percent this year and another 8 to 12 percent in 2011. Paulson, who made his comments in a conference call with investors, said home ownership is the most affordable it has been in 50 years. He said residential real estate is 60 percent more affordable than it was at the peak of the housing bubble.
U.S. housing prices are showing signs of recovery after a slide that sent values to levels last seen in 2003 and left almost a quarter of homeowners with properties worth less than their mortgages. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 cities rose 0.6 percent in February from a year earlier, the first annual gain since December 2006, according to a report April 27.
If you buy into the recovery, below are a few ETF options for you to consider:
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Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ)
Invests in stocks issued by real estate investment trusts (REITs), companies that purchase office buildings, hotels, and other real property. Goal is to closely track the return of the MSCI® US REIT Index, a gauge of real estate stocks. Offers high potential for investment income and some growth; share value rises and falls more sharply than that of funds holding bonds.
Appropriate for helping diversify the risks of stocks and bonds in a portfolio
Month-end ten largest holdings (43.6% of total net assets) as of 03/31/2010
| 1 | Simon Property Group Inc. | |
| 2 | Vornado Realty Trust | |
| 3 | Public Storage | |
| 4 | Equity Residential | |
| 5 | Boston Properties Inc. | |
| 6 | HCP Inc. | |
| 7 | Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. | |
| 8 | Ventas Inc. | |
| 9 | AvalonBay Communities Inc. | |
| 10 | Kimco Realty Corp. |
iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (IYR)
The iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, to the performance of the real estate sector of the U.S. equity market, as represented by the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index.
| SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC | 8.82% |
| VORNADO REALTY TRUST | 4.98% |
| PUBLIC STORAGE | 4.31% |
| EQUITY RESIDENTIAL | 4.29% |
| BOSTON PROPERTIES INC | 3.81% |
| HOST HOTELS&RESORTS INC | 3.36% |
| HCP INC | 3.29% |
| ANNALY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT IN | 3.15% |
| AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC | 2.87% |
| VENTAS INC | 2.57% |
| Total | 41.44% |
iShares Cohen & Steers Realty (ICF)
The iShares Cohen & Steers Realty Majors Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of large, actively traded U.S. real estate investment trusts, as represented by the Cohen & Steers Realty Majors Index.
| SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC | 7.86% |
| PUBLIC STORAGE | 7.48% |
| VORNADO REALTY TRUST | 7.12% |
| EQUITY RESIDENTIAL | 7.11% |
| BOSTON PROPERTIES INC | 6.26% |
| HOST HOTELS&RESORTS INC | 5.52% |
| HCP INC | 5.39% |
| AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC | 4.72% |
| VENTAS INC | 4.22% |
| KIMCO REALTY CORP | 3.58% |
| Total | 59.26% |
SPDR Dow Jones REIT (RWR)
The SPDR® Dow Jones REIT ETF, before expenses, seeks to match the returns and characteristics of the Dow Jones U.S. Select REIT IndexSM (ticker: DWRTFT). Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
| Name | Weight | |
| Simon Ppty Group Inc New | 10.14% | |
| Vornado Rlty Tr | 5.72% | |
| Public Storage | 4.96% | |
| Equity Residential | 4.94% | |
| Boston Properties Inc | 4.38% | |
| Host Hotels & Resorts Inc | 3.86% | |
| Hcp Inc | 3.78% | |
| Avalonbay Cmntys Inc | 3.30% | |
| Ventas Inc | 2.95% | |
| Kimco Realty Corp | 2.50% |
ProShares Ultra Real Estate (URE)
This ETF seeks a return of 200% of the return of an index (target) for a single day. Due to the compounding of daily returns, ProShares’ returns over periods other than one day will likely differ in amount and possibly direction from the target return for the same period. Investors should monitor their ProShares holdings consistent with their strategies, as frequently as daily.
| TOP 10 HOLDINGS ( 42.70% OF TOTAL ASSETS) |
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