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The Reality Is That Gold ETFs Are Still In A Secular Bull Market (GLD, SGOL)

Focus on what matters as I know this is hard to do, especially when one is weathering draw downs. And of course a liberal dose of gloating from the bears during these times doesn’t help either. But let’s not get sidetracked by the little things and let’s face it, the haters are going to show up every time gold corrects. We really should be used to that by now. They’ve been doing it for 10 years.  

The cold hard reality is that gold is still in a secular bull market and the naysayers are having to play their trade from even higher levels.  

So let’s take a look at what’s really happening shall we.  

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The single most important point everyone should keep in mind is the breakout above the 1980 high of $850. If it wasn’t for a once in a generation stock and credit market collapse I don’t think gold would have ever dropped back below that level. Even so the move was very brief and has now been tested at the last B-wave bottom.

   

Folks I seriously doubt the world will ever see sub $850 gold again. Just like we’ve never seen sub $250 gold after the breakout in the 70′s. So anyone forecasting $700 gold just doesn’t understand how bull markets work. It just ain’t gonna happen.
Next came the breakout above the last C-wave high at $1025.
That breakout was also tested during the February yearly cycle low. I doubt we will see gold back below $1000 for the remainder of this bull market.
Now gold is trying to breakout and hold above the next big resistance level of $1200. The initial break in December was repulsed. Now we have a second break that is in the process of testing the breakout.

   

Now I have no idea whether this breakout will be the one that holds or whether gold will have to consolidate a bit more. But sooner or later gold is going to break above this level and never look back.
I think we probably have enough time left in the current intermediate cycle for it to happen soon, but if not, I’m confident it will happen and I’m on board and ready for the ride when it does.
My suggestion is when you start to get sidetracked by the daily wiggles or the intermittent draw downs you come back and look at these charts and stay focused on what really matters.
 

-Written By Toby Connor From Gold Scents      

Gold Scents is focused primarily on the secular gold bull market.      


       

Investors have turned to gold ETFs as a safe haven during the recent stock market turmoil.  They offer a great way to protect you against risk in your portfolio during uncertain times. We have put together some ETF options in gold for your viewing below:            

LONG:            

The investment SPDR Gold ETF (NYSE: GLD) seeks to replicate the performance, net of expenses, of the price of gold bullion. The trust holds gold, and is expected to issue baskets in exchange for deposits of gold, and to distribute gold in connection with redemption of baskets. The gold held by the trust will only be sold on an as-needed basis to pay trust expenses, in the event the trust terminates and liquidates its assets, or as otherwise required by law or regulation.            

The investment ETF (NYSE: GDX) seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the AMEX Gold Miners index. The fund generally normally invests at least 80% of its total assets in common stocks and American depositary receipts (ADRs) of companies involved in the gold mining industry. The fund is nondiversified.            

The Funds ETF (NYSE: GDXJ) investment objective is to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index (the “Junior Gold Miners Index”). For a further description of the Junior Gold Miners Index, see “Junior Gold Miners Index.”            

The objective of ETF (NYSE: SGOL) the newly listed shares is to reflect the performance of the price of Gold bullion, less the Trust’s operating expenses. The Trust is open ended and is designed for investors who want a cost-effective(1) and convenient(2) way to invest in Gold as well as diversify their Gold holdings.            

The investment ETF (NYSE: UGL) will seek to replicate, net of expenses, twice the performance of gold bullion as measured by the U.S. Dollar p.m. fixing price for delivery in London. The fund normally invests assets in financial instruments with economic characteristics twice the return of the index. It may employ leveraged investment techniques in seeking its investment objective.            

The investment ETF (NYSE: DGL) seeks to track the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index – Optimum Yield Gold Excess Return. The index is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on gold and is intended to reflect the performance of gold.            

The investment ETF (NYSE: DGP) seeks to replicate, net of expenses, twice the daily performance of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity index – Optimum Yield Gold Excess Return. The index is intended to reflect changes in the market value of certain gold futures contracts and is comprised of a single unfunded gold futures contract.            

The objective ETF (NYSE: IAU) of the trust is for the value of its shares to reflect, at any given time, the price of gold owned by the trust at that time, less the trust’s expenses and liabilities. The trust is not actively managed. It receives gold deposited with it in exchange for the creation of baskets of iShares, sells gold as necessary to cover the trust’s liabilities, and delivers gold in exchange for baskets of iShares surrendered to it for redemption. The trust is not an investment company registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 or a commodity pool for purposes of the Commodity Exchange Act.            

SHORT:            

The investment ETF (NYSE: DZZ) seeks to replicate, net of expenses, twice the inverse of the daily performance of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity index – Optimum Yield Gold Excess Return. The index is intended to reflect changes in the market value of certain gold futures contracts and is comprised of a single unfunded gold futures contract.            

The investment ETF (NYSE: GLL) will seek to replicate, net of expenses, twice the inverse daily performance of gold bullion as measured by the U.S. Dollar p.m. fixing price for delivery in London. The fund normally invests assets in financial instruments with economic characteristics inverse to the index. It may employ leveraged investment techniques in seeking its investment objective.

NYSE:GLD, SGOL


 

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