Home > Oil Inventories Look Bullish (USO, TOT, RDS, COP, CVX, BP)
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Oil Inventories Look Bullish (USO, TOT, RDS, COP, CVX, BP)

December 23rd, 2010

Yesterday’s report from the U.S. energy department marked the second huge draw on stockpiles in a row. Seasonal effects are coming onto the market faster than expected.

Meanwhile, U.S. imports are moving lower as well, but the key to this market remains on the consumption side, where oil products in particular are seeing real demand pressures.

This is not a weak dollar-driven run to commodities — this is a global demand rally. And since right now the headline oil prices are still trading fairly thinly, these markets have little place to go but up.

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Watch the contango coming out of these markets, which have simply not accounted for another year of above-trend demand growth. According to Macquarie, downstream inventories are now down for the 13th week in a row.

And Dennis Gartman, a man who knows these things, says he’s less impressed with the draw than with the shape of the futures curve.

Global integrated E&P that pay a high dividend and are insulated from certain product supply responses are the best ways to play this. Think Total SA (NYSE:TOT), Royal Dutch Shell plc (NYSE:RDS-A), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX). If you are aggressive, BP plc (NYSE:BP):

Naturally, to play the commodity itself, United States Oil (NYSE:USO) is a place to start:

Written By Tim Seymour From Emerging Money

Emerging Money provides insightful and timely information about the increasingly important world of Emerging Market investments. CNBC Emerging Markets Contributor Tim Seymour leads the team of Emerging Money to bring you cutting edge global news and analysis.

About Tim Seymour: Tim is a founder of Emerging Money. He is a founder and Managing Partner at Seygem Asset Management, and The Emerging Markets Contributor to CNBC. Seygem Asset Management focuses on investing throughout the global emerging markets asset class. With a view that emerging and developing economies will continue to outpace the economic growth and advancement of developed economies, Seymour has devoted a career to investing in the dominant markets of tomorrow, today. Seymour’s career has included significant experience in both alternative asset management (hedge funds) and capital markets, having launched two hedge funds, and built the largest Russian broker dealer in the USA. Seymour started his career at UBS, focusing on international credit (cash, swaps, forex) in a specialized hedge fund group (New York). Seymour completed the firm’s training program after graduating with an MBA in international finance from Fordham University. Seymour received his undergraduate degree at Georgetown University.

USO


 

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