Even though the latest round of geopolitical unrest has the markets on the run, the retreat has been relatively orderly and we could see support from the technical and fundamental situation kick in soon.

Barring the worst case scenario in the Middle East, the U.S. market is still 2% above the middle-term support that the 50-day moving average currently provides.

The S&P 500 has respected this line — currently at 1,280 — since September. For the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), this would represent a level of about $128.

The first time the market sees this level tested, it will buy back in. Nobody wants to fight the trend here, and again, this level has held up nicely for the last five months so far.

Furthermore, the trend lines are still stacked up in a technical “golden cross” — the short-term prices have been trading well above the long-term average for long enough that the 50-day support line is well above the 200-day line here.

If for some reason the SPY fails to respect the $128 support line, the next legs down look stacked at roughly $124 and $117.

Meanwhile, the fundamental picture remains fairly firm — again, no matter what happens in the immediate term with oil. U.S. data points are not going to suffer immediately, as today’s jobless claims indicate.

Be cautious, but you can trade this.

Written By Tim Seymour From Emerging Money

Emerging Money provides insightful and timely information about the increasingly important world of Emerging Market investments. CNBC Emerging Markets Contributor Tim Seymour leads the team of Emerging Money to bring you cutting edge global news and analysis.

About Tim Seymour: Tim is a founder of Emerging Money. He is a founder and Managing Partner at Seygem Asset Management, and The Emerging Markets Contributor to CNBC. Seygem Asset Management focuses on investing throughout the global emerging markets asset class. With a view that emerging and developing economies will continue to outpace the economic growth and advancement of developed economies, Seymour has devoted a career to investing in the dominant markets of tomorrow, today. Seymour’s career has included significant experience in both alternative asset management (hedge funds) and capital markets, having launched two hedge funds, and built the largest Russian broker dealer in the USA. Seymour started his career at UBS, focusing on international credit (cash, swaps, forex) in a specialized hedge fund group (New York). Seymour completed the firm’s training program after graduating with an MBA in international finance from Fordham University. Seymour received his undergraduate degree at Georgetown University.

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