Silver Trade: Why I Doubled My Position In This UltraShort Silver ETF (SLV, ZSL, AGQ, GLD, PSLV)

June 24, 2011 2:16pm NYSE:AGQ NYSE:GLD

John Townsend:  This morning I doubled my position in the Proshares Ultrashort Silver ETF (NYSE:ZSL) with this buy at $19.05.  A reader wrote to inquire about the possible upside on ZSL, I got to looking at it, and what I saw convinced myself to buy more.


 
 
In considering the possibilities for ZSL I made this 6 month daily chart and noted some of my observations. At what appeared to be various possible destinations upside, I provide the corresponding low price that XSLV traded that day. I have a general idea how fast and far silver may drop from here and wanted to compare it with the possible price appreciation of ZSL.

I also drew a trend line on the True Strength Index (TSI) indicator to assess the threat of a trend line break sell signal, and observe that the TSI is not currently making a negative divergence (that is, current TSI reading is higher than the previous high TSI reading of 0.24).

Also, there are various moving averages that will act as resistance to upward price movement. The 50 dma appears to have been conquered. The 100 dma is overhead at about 23.71 and should ZSL make it to the 200 dma before the correction in silver ends, I estimate that resistance level to be about  39.50.

 
 
Finally, a look at the daily charts of the US Dollar (below) continuous contract (DX), and on the right, the Silver continuous contract (SI). The idea is that if the dollar goes up, silver will go down and the challenge is to assess whether it is reasonable to expect this price movement to occur in the near future.
 

In brief, these two charts do convince me that the upside expectation for ZSL is reasonable. The silver chart shows that the overall pattern has played out exactly as I expected and wrote about a few days ago. Namely, the parabolic rise blows up, a reaction rally creates a trend line that is finally broken to the downside.  Then a bear flag forms just under the former trend line – which is a second attempt to rally silver price. The previous trend line of the reaction rally acts now as resistance, not support, to upward price movement. Then the bear flag fails with price dropping sharply lower.

On the dollar side, price is trying to get through the 100 dma. If successful on a closing basis there is a decent chance the dollar could make it to the blue 200 dma overhead.  If the dollar should make it all the way up to its 200 dma, that should be the bottom in this silver correction and definitely a time to sell ZSL.

Related ETFs: Sprott Physical Silver Trust (NYSE:PSLV), ProShares Ultra Silver (NYSE:AGQ),  ProShares UltraShort Silver (NYSE:ZSL),  iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV), SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD).

Written By John Townsend From The TSI Trader

The TSI Trader is a website dedicated to the deployment of the True Strength Index (TSI) indicator for buy and sell signals related to gold’s secular bull market.  The TSI indicator is freely available at FreeStockCharts.


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