Home > The Final Market Rally Up Before The Big Leg Down Is Near? (SPY, TNA, TZA, SDS, TWM, UWM)

The Final Market Rally Up Before The Big Leg Down Is Near? (SPY, TNA, TZA, SDS, TWM, UWM)

November 13th, 2011

David Banister: Back on October 3rd, I penned a public article forecasting a major low in the SP 500 to occur around 1088.  The SP 500 had been declining from the 1370 highs this May and was in the 1130’s and nearing its final descent in a corrective pattern.  The next day, the market bottomed intra-day at 1074 and closed north of 1100.  Since that time, we have rallied impressively to a high of 1292, with a strong pullback to 1215, and now what I believe is the finally rally to a major top formation.

This current rally is part of a normal retracement of the 1370 highs to 1074 lows that similarly occurred in the 2008 rally off the first major market drop.  One would expect this rally to take a few months to complete from October 4th and likely peak sometime between now and Christmas in the 1292-1320 ranges as outlined below.

First you must understand that my forecasts are largely based on human behavioral patterns and not economic news or European headlines.  The crowd commonly buys and sells in the same fear and greed swing patterns over and over again throughout history.  Once you understand these patterns, you can make pretty strong educated guesses on the direction and pivot highs and lows within a few percentage points.  Other than those wave patterns, there are other indicators I use to confirm what I think I’m seeing, so let’s review:

  1. The bullish Percent Index readings are now at 72%, which typically is an area that marks a rally high in the markets.  These indicators tell you how many of the SP 500 stocks have bullish point and figure charts.  Typically a reading over 70% is way overbought and all bulls are on board, and a reading below 30% is the opposite.   The market bottomed this summer twice on August 8th and October 4th as these readings were sub 30%.  The market topped in July at 1356 as this reading was over 70%. With my wave patterns and this reading now again over 70%, it’s a strong warning of an imminent reversal.
  2. Sentiment Indicators are now back to full on bullish.  In the most recent AAII survey, we have nearly 46% of those polled bullish, up from an extreme low of 24% in early October near the market lows.  In addition, the Bears in this survey are at a near extreme low of 24% of those polled, leaving the ratio at almost 2 to 1 bulls.  This is another warning flag.

The Bullish Percent Index chart is below with some notations:

Best Market Forecast

Longer term, my best view right now is that this is a counter-trend bounce off the 1074 lows that will give way to another big down leg.

Here is my reasoning:

First, look at the SP 500 chart. I show the congestion zone from 1275-1300.  My Fibonacci and wave targets have been 1292/93-1306 for a few weeks; we hit 1292/93 once and fell hard.  The market is trying to work back up there in this final E wave up I think.  So far 1274-76 were hit (One of my targets) and we will see if it can run to 1292/93 and the final is 1306-08.

Stock Market forecasting

This is a B wave rally or wave 2 rally off the 1074 lows. We are in a bear cycle bounce.

From March of 2009 (I forecasted a market low on Feb 25th 2009), the market rallied from 666 to 1370 in 3 clear waves, ABC. Those are corrective patterns of a bear market. The market topped at .786% of the 2007 highs to 2009 lows at 1370 with Bin Laden’s death, a seminal event.

Since then— 5 waves down (impulsive) to 1074 marked a 38% retrace of the Bear rally that went from 666 to 1370.

This is a counter-trend rally from 1074 to 3 potential pivot areas. 1292 (which I forecast and already hit), 1306-1308, and max 1320. 1306-08 is probably the max in my views.


A wave: 1074-1233 wave A from October 4th lows.  (I forecasted a bottom on October 3rd)

B wave:  1233-1195 wave B (A mild .236% retrace of A wave)

C wave: 1195- 1292, 1308, 1320 wave C  (Where wave c is either .618, .71, or .786 of wave A (159 points 1074-1233))

This recent pattern in a more microcosmic view is much like the ABC rally from 666 to 1370. There the A wave was huge and went from from 666 to 1221.  The B wave 1221-1010; and then the C wave 1010-1370.  That C wave was only 64% of the A wave.  All of those pivots, 1010, 1221, 666, 1370 etc. have Fibonacci relationships to prior market highs and lows.

I’m looking for this current counter-trend rally to mimic the nature of the 2009-2011 ABC Rally.  That means this final pattern up now we are in from 1195 pivot would be much less substantial than the rally from 1074-1233.  That is why I look for 1292-1306 ranges (same forecast I had weeks ago) as a top between now and Christmas at best.  At any time this market could top and crack, so I’m laying it out as best as I can.

Bottom Line: Market is trying to complete a counter-trend rally which so far peaked at 1292/93 and is struggling to get back up there or maybe a tad higher before the markets lose strength.  Many indicators short term are peaking as well, and everyone should be on guard.  If you’d like to be forewarned of major tops and bottoms in Gold, Silver, and the SP 500 with outside the box thinking, check us out at www.MarketTrendForecast.com for a great offer.

Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 ETF (NYSEARCA: SDS), ProShares UltraShort Russell2000 ETF (NYSEARCA: TWM), Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares (NYSEARCA: TNA), Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (NYSEARCA: TZA), ProShares Ultra Russell2000 ETF (NYSEARCA: UWM).

Written By David A. Banister From The Market Trend Forecast

David Banister – We believe that markets move largely based on important swings in sentiment, crowd behavioral patterns, Fibonacci Re-tracements, Cycles, and other ephemeral catalysts.  The headlines explain what just happened in the market, but they do not predict the next moves up or down in the indices, sectors, or commodities.  As an investor, you need to be armed with tools in advance of major moves that are accurate, and TMTF will assist you in being prepared as an investor for volatile markets both on the upside and downside. We have a wealth of technical analysis experience to take advantage of the crowd behavior in the markets.  Our Chief Strategist, David Banister,  has been quoted and or written articles on CBS Marketwatch.com, 321gold.com, TheStreet.Com, SafeHaven.com, Kitco.com, Stockhouse.com, Theaureport.com, along with other well known investment sites.  David has been a past guest on the national radio show “Money Matter$”.  Chris Vermeulen of Thegoldandoilguy.com met David in 2008 as the financial crisis was unfolding.  After numerous months of following the forecasts and trading abilities of Mr. Banister, Chris suggested that a joint venture be formed and we offer a trading service to a finite and select group of partners (subscribers).  ActiveTradingPartners.Com was formed in July of 2009, and with the success of that service, we now launch The Market Trend Forecast in March of 2010.



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  1. David Fraser
    January 6th, 2012 at 10:28 | #1

    I’ve been saying for years that Dave Banister is the biggest fraudster not YET in prison. Today again shows just why I make such a claim. He boasted overnight that his “bonus” position (and remember “Bonus Stocks are NOT followed here at ATP after release”) TPLM was up 30%! Firstly, this just shows how badly he’s doing on his normal trading. As we’ve said many times, every trade he’s made since summer has been loss-making (up to -100%), but commonly -60% relative. He daren’t talk about his beaten up “core positions” (down -60% avg). He keeps well clear of mentioning his recent failures in TZA, ERY, BGZ, SSRI, RIMM, Gold, SODA,SZYM etc, so he’s now resorted to making up trades and pretending to have finally found a winner!!!
    Nowhere in the records (sourced directly from his many disgruntled “partners”) is there any record of either him buying TPLM or giving any running update. Yet, like magic (or fraud), he suddenly, out of the blue, now claims he’s made a profit on this fictitious trade.
    I highly recommend and encourage any “Partners” to bring legal action against Dave for fraud and obtaining money through deceptive advertising… Contact me directly if you need supporting documentation…. Dan

    See you’re starting the new year as you left off the last one – losing money… Fancy going short into Jobs-week, the biggest rally week we’ll have for 3 months! When will you learn that your 13- Fibonacci pivot means less than squat! Remember when markets rallied from 1084 to 1291 in a mere 3 weeks and you dumbly stayed 3-times short for the entire move… Well, it’s deja vu all over again.
    Fortunately, Dan alerted us to you buying TZA a few days back, and we all went long with TNA. Am up 5% at the open. You really are a douche-bag, why don’t you just stop f**king you poor (even poorer since the 1st) partners and give it up… Wait a minute, what am I writing, if you go where will Dan get his signals from… On seconds thoughts, don’t give up your day job, so I soon will be able to mine..

    @ 2nd Jan: “Likely going to see a pullback into the mid part of January in the stock markets”
    TZA: Average is probably around 26.05 plus minus
    “I added to my positions in TZA aggressively today from 26.08-26.35”
    @ 24th “Dec 26-29th pivot highs I have been forecasting” + “Look for the rally to likely continue to no later than Dec 29th, and top anytime from Dec 26th-29th next week”

    “I added to my positions in TZA aggressively today from 26.08-26.35”
    Stopped at £24.45. So in a few days, while the markets have been rallying you lost -7.2% absolute. TNA is up 8%, so your relative underperformance just since (@ 24th “Dec 26-29th pivot highs I have been forecasting”) is a ball-breaking -16%… Well F**king done!
    Bottom line? 1213 is kind of the low end of the 1213-1224 no man’s land, and a solid break below is not good for Bulls
    TZA- 26.45 at time of alert, 949 am EST
    You sure talk the talk. What confuses me is why don’t you ever walk the walk. You write sentence after sentence saying how fascinating these markets are, how you see a whopping 70% bear scenario, how all your little Fibanacci points scream markets will drop (something you’ve been saying since 12th December, when you said 1209 would fail). Yet on days like this you actually do NOTHING. If you had any convictions in your abilities you’d stop musing and moaning the fact that this huge day passed you by on the short-side and actually go SHORTER still… What more do you want, a letter from NYSE telling you exactly when the fall will start. Talk is cheap. Either say you have no idea, or, after spending the last 3 weeks vainly trying to call a top, and today adding more to your arguements, get on a go aggressively short. It’s of no use seeing you claim the markets will fall, yet you take absolutely no decisive action:

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