Home > The Brink Of A Historic Inflationary Period as The U.S. Dollar Teetering On The Abyss (GLD, GDX, UUP, SLV, IAU)

The Brink Of A Historic Inflationary Period as The U.S. Dollar Teetering On The Abyss (GLD, GDX, UUP, SLV, IAU)

November 14th, 2011

Toby Connor: We all better hope I’m wrong on this one, but I think the CRB just put in its three year cycle low in  October. I’m also afraid that Ben Bernanke has done irreparable damage to the U.S. Dollar (NYSEARCA: UUP). If I’m right about both of those assumptions then we are on the brink of a historic inflationary period.

I’ve marked the major three year cycle  bottoms in both the CRB index and the dollar index on the chart below with blue arrows. (Actually the CRB cycle tends to run about two and half  years on average.)

The dollar is now a great risk of forming a left translated three year  cycle. A break below the October  27 intraday low would initiate a  pattern of lower lows and lower highs  of an intermediate degree. When the intermediate cycles start to roll over that is  usually a sign that a major cycle has  topped. If the dollar’s three year cycle has topped after only five  months we will be at great risk of a severe currency crisis in the fall of 2014 when the next three year cycle low is due. Even more concerning is if the CRB  cycle has bottomed. If it has then commodities are poised for a huge surge higher during the next two years as the dollar deteriorates.

The next couple of weeks are going to be critical for the  dollar. Sometime in the next two weeks the dollar is going to drop down into its next daily cycle bottom. On average that cycle lasts about 20 to 25 days. Monday will be the 12th day of the cycle.The reversal on Thursday has the potential to mark the daily cycle top. If that top holds then the dollar is at great risk of moving below the October 27 intraday bottom sometime in the next two weeks as it moves down into its next daily cycle low.

The dollar must hold above the October 27 low. Failure  to do so would indicate that the cancer has now infected the currency markets, most specifically the US dollar. A penetration of the October 27 low would indicate that the current intermediate cycle topped in only two weeks. That should potentially lead to another 15-20 weeks of generally lower prices on the dollar index with the next intermediate degree bottom due sometime in early to mid March.

If that scenario plays out we are almost certainly going to see the CRB break its down trend line confirming a major three year cycle bottom has been formed.

The extremely mild nature of the decline so far is a serious warning sign that QE1 and QE2 are going to eventually trigger massive commodity inflation.

At this point all we can do is hope that the three year cycle in the CRB will stretch slightly long and bottom early next year. If it fails to do so, and the major three year cycle low did occur in October, then we have some serious inflation heading our way in the next two years.

More importantly to precious metal investors, if the dollars three year cycle has already topped, then there is a very strong possibility that the next two years, as the dollar collapses down into its 2014 bottom, will drive the bubble phase in the gold bull market.

Related ETFs: SPDR Gold ETF (NYSEARCA: GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: GDX), PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSEARCA: UUP), iShares COMEX Gold Trust (NYSEARCA: IAU), iShares Silver Trust (NYSEARCA: SLV)

Written By Toby Connor From Gold Scents

Toby Connor is the author of Gold Scents, a financial blog with a  special emphasis on the gold secular bull market. Mr. Connor’s analysis  skill of the markets is largely self-taught, though he admits to being  an avid reader of Richard Russell and Jim Rogers, among several others.



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  1. JK
    May 31st, 2012 at 17:06 | #1


    Your economics class lied to you. Pick up a book by Peter Schiff and you will understand why.

  2. Jan Rogozinski
    November 14th, 2011 at 12:21 | #2

    Anyone that takes your comments seriously will see his personal finances destroyed.
    About a week into any economics course one learns the equation P=MV. Price is equivalent to market price (V) of money times circulation of money (M).
    Right now we have 9% official and 20% unoffical unempoyemtn. Yet we keep cvutting and ccutting and cutting government spending. The Sepcial commission to cut the dreficit is doing precisely the wrong thing.
    Meanwhile , the idiot Euroepeans are doing exactly the same thing, with highu employment, they keen to institue more and more “austerity,“ cutting social beneficts, raising taxes.–Both of which make demand (i.e., M in the equation above) smaler and smaller.
    Thanks to these stupid worries about the deficient, all the countries in the entire world are cutting demand for products at the same time. It is like that we will go into a very steep depression. If any proof is needed, look at Japan, the government has run a huge deficit and printed money for 20 years by the ton, yet there is no inflation.
    The best buy now is long-term treasury bonds,. During periods of Deflation, which is what we have and will continue to have, fiat money is a safer buy than almost anything else.

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