Unfortunately that is not a simple answer. With what is unfolding across the pond and the bullish outlook for the US Dollar index (NYSEARCA:UUP) the next move is a coin toss. That being said, I do feel a large move brewing in the market place so I am preparing for fireworks in the first quarter of 2012.
If you step back and look at the weekly trend charts of the dollar index and the S&P 500 index (NYSEARCA:SPY) you will see the strength in the dollar along with a possible top in equities forming. What these charts are telling is that in the next 3 months we should know if stocks and commodities are going to start another multi-month rally or roll over and start a bear market sell off.
With the holiday season nearing, hedge fund managers sitting on the sidelines just waiting for their year end performance bonuses, I cannot see any large sell off start until January. Sell offs in the market require strong volume and the second half of December is not a time of heavy trading volume.
This leaves us with a light volume holiday season, major issues overseas and no big money players willing to cause waves.
Dollar Index Daily Chart
This week we have seen a strong shift of money out of risk on assets (Bonds) and into risk off (Stocks). This shift is happening before the dollar has broken down indicating the dollar may be topping and could be an early warning of higher stocks prices going into year end. Also note that light volume market conditions also favour higher prices.
Gold Price Daily Chart
Gold could still head lower but at this point it is holding a key support level. If we see the dollar breakdown below its green support trendline then I expect gold to have a firm bounce to the $1675 – $1700.
Silver Price Daily Chart
Silver continues to hold a key support level. If the dollar breaks down the silver should bounce to the $31.50 – $32 area. But if the dollar continues to rally then silver and gold may drop sharply.
Mid-Week Trend Conclusion:
In short, I think the best thing to do is enjoy the holiday season with family and friends. Trading right now is not that great and with the market giving mixed signals. I am keeping my eyes on the market in case it flashes a low risk setup and I will keep you informed if we get one.
I am still bearish on gold and silver longer term but the next week or so its likely we see higher prices.
Be aware that Monday is a holiday and once January arrives the market could go crazy again. If you want all my swing trades that I personally do be sure to join my alert service www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com
My name is Chris Vermeulen the Founder of TheGoldAndOilGuy. I have more than a decade of extensive experience trading stocks, indices, ETFs, CFDs and Futures. My trading style has been thoroughly refined over the years, blending the best cutting-edge approaches that have only been possible with modern systems and diverse technologies. I believe I represent the ideal combination of trading styles and trade setups including a number of trading breakthroughs entirely on my own. It is this blend of the time-tested and innovatively new that allows me to take advantage of bull, bear and flat markets regardless of how each week plays out. I’ve repeatedly observed that one of the biggest keys to making a lot of money in challenging markets involves aiming for big, quick returns, while maintaining an extraordinary focus on minimizing risk. This may be what most distinguishes what I provide vs. the experiences delivered by the vast majority of other newsletters.