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U.S. Dollar Is Broken; Generating The Bubble Phase Of The Gold Bull Market?

January 26th, 2012

Toby Connor: It has been my theory that this year we would see one of the worst performances by the stock market since 2008. However that has always been dependent on Bernanke not being able  to break the dollar’s rally (NYSEArca:UUP) out of its three year cycle low. As of this morning the dollar (NYSEArca:UDN) has printed a failed daily cycle. More often than not  a failed daily cycle is an indication that an intermediate degree decline has begun.

I have begged and pleaded with people not too short the stock market over the last several weeks. For one it’s very hard to make money on the short side (NYSEArca:TZA) for the simple reason that markets move down differently than they move up. Now I’m going to give you another reason not to short the stock market.


If the dollar has begun an intermediate degree decline then we should see it continue generally lower for the next 7 to 10 weeks. If this turns out to be the case then we are not going to see any meaningful declines in the stock market during this period. As a matter of fact the risk is great that the stock market could enter a runaway type rally if the dollar has begun the move down into an intermediate degree bottom.

As you can see in the chart below the last runaway move in 2006 lasted almost 7 months.

Runaway moves are characterized by randomly spaced corrections, all of similar magnitude and duration. As  you can see in the chart above the corrective magnitude in this  particular runaway move was about 20-30 points.

Keep in mind we don’t have confirmation that a runaway move has begun yet. We would need to see how the first correction unfolds. If it is mild and brief, followed by the  market moving back to new highs, then the odds would escalate that a runaway move has in fact begun.

Another big clue will come when the dollar bounces out of its daily cycle low, which is now due at any time,  and if that bounce fails to make new highs before rolling over. If that  happens it will reverse the pattern of higher highs and higher lows and  confirm that an intermediate decline has indeed begun.

The scary part is that this may also signal the top of the three year cycle. If so then we are looking at an extremely left translated three year cycle that should generate huge  inflationary pressures by the time the next three year cycle low is due  in the fall of 2014.

It has been my expectation that we would see another deflationary period in 2012 before the cancer infected the global currency markets. As of this morning I’m not so sure that process hasn’t already begun and the deflationary period has been aborted. Bernanke may have broken the dollar rally yesterday.

If this scenario unfolds it has the possibility of generating the bubble phase of the gold bull market. I elaborated on this in last night’s premium report.

Related Tickers: SPDR Gold ETF (NYSEArca:GLD),  Market Vectors Gold  Miners ETF (NYSEArca:GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca:GDXJ), PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bearish Fund (NYSEArca:UDN), PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSEArca:UUP), iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca:SLV).

Written By Toby Connor From Gold Scents

Toby Connor is the author of Gold Scents, a financial blog with a special emphasis on the gold secular bull market. Mr. Connor’s analysis skill of the markets is largely self-taught, though he admits to being an avid reader of Richard Russell and Jim Rogers, among several others.

 


NYSE:GDX, NYSE:GDXJ, NYSE:GLD, NYSE:UDN, NYSE:UUP


 

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  1. hank40
    January 26th, 2012 at 18:22 | #1

    the dollar WILL no move lower..their is no basis for this..aside from speculation that is on the border of being nuts…QE will NOT happen..

    the speculators are looking for …at the MAX…bond buying…which should happen..but not yet

    on a bigger scale..the Euro collapse will generate more head winds than anything..safe heaven will be the USD,..as the economy and unemplyment numbers have been doing amazing..and housing…

    PS!! stop using TA!! to predict the future..read the news!!

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