The 2008 Financial Crisis Was Nothing Compared To What Lies Ahead (XLF, SKF, FAZ, BAC, C, JPM, GS, JPM)
Michael Snyder: The people out there that believe that the U.S. economy is experiencing a permanent recovery and that very bright days are ahead for us should have their heads examined. Unfortunately, what we are going through right now is simply just a period of “hopetimism” between two financial crashes. Things may seem relatively stable right now, but it won’t last long. The truth is that the financial crisis of 2008 was just a warm up act for the economic horror show that is coming. Nothing really got fixed after the crash of 2008. We are living in the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world, and it has gotten even bigger since then. The “too big to fail” banks are larger now than they have ever been. Americans continue to run up credit card balances like there is no tomorrow. Tens of thousands of manufacturing facilities and millions of jobs continue to leave the country. We continue to consume far more than we produce and we continue to become poorer as a nation. None of the problems that caused the crisis of 2008 have been solved and we are even weaker financially than we were back then. So why in the world are so many people so optimistic about the economy right now? The Next Next Financial Crisis Will Be Devastating To The Economy
Just take a look at the chart posted below. It shows the growth of total debt in the United States. During the financial crisis of 2008 there was a little “hiccup”, but the truth is that not much deleveraging really took place at all. And since the recession “ended”, total credit market debt has gone on to even greater heights….
So what does this mean for the future?
Well, if a small “hiccup” in the debt bubble caused so much chaos back in 2008, what is going to happen when this debt bubble finally bursts?
That is something to think about.
Sadly, most Americans seem oblivious to all of this.
If you go out to malls in the wealthy areas of America today, people are charging up a storm. In all, Americans charged a whopping 2.5 trillion dollars on their credit cards during 2011. Way too many people have already forgotten the lessons that we all learned back in 2008.
Of course some Americans pay off their credit cards every month, but way too many Americans are not doing that. In 1980, Americans were carrying 54 million dollars in revolving credit balances. Today, Americans are carrying 794 million dollars in revolving credit balances.
And student loan debt is an even bigger bubble than credit card debt is. As I have written about previously, total student loan debt in America is rapidly approaching a trillion dollars.
So it looks like U.S. consumers have not learned to stay away from debt.
That is not good.
Well, what about the banks?
Has the financial system learned any lessons since 2008?
No, not really.
Sadly, the “too big to fail” banks are now even bigger than ever. The total assets of the six largest U.S. banks increased by 39 percent between September 30, 2006 and September 30, 2011. If they were to fail today, they would be even more of a threat to our financial system than they were back in 2008. [Related: Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC)]
And our major banks continue to be very highly leveraged. In fact, major banks all over the world are absolutely swamped with debt.
The following statistics come from Zero Hedge….
The U.S. banking system is leveraged 13 to 1.
The Japanese banking system is leveraged 23 to 1.
The French banking system is leveraged 26 to 1.
The German banking system is leveraged 32 to 1.
These are insane levels of leverage, and they are just inviting another major financial crisis.
Do you all remember Lehman Brothers? The fact that they were leveraged so highly is what did them in back in 2008. When the value of their holdings declined by just a little bit they were totally wiped out.
Well, during this next financial crisis large financial institutions are going to be wiped out all over the world. Major banks all over the globe are going to be crying out for more bailouts when things take a turn against them. [Related: Financial Sector ETF (NYSEArca:XLF), Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares ETF (NYSEArca:FAS), ProShares UltraShort Financials ETF (NYSEArca:SKF), Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares ETF (NYSEArca:FAZ), ProShares Ultra Financials (NYSEArca:UYG)]
They are making the exact same mistakes that they made before, and they are going to be expecting more government handouts when things go bad.
Will we ever learn?
So obviously the banking system has not learned any lessons.
What about the federal government?
Unfortunately, over the past four years things have gotten so much worse.
Back in 2008, the U.S. national debt crossed the 10 trillion dollar mark.
Just recently, it crossed the 15 trillion dollar mark.
So now we are in a much weaker position financially to respond to another major financial crisis.
Just check out the chart posted below. This is a recipe for national financial suicide….
During fiscal 2011, the Obama administration stole close to 150 million dollars from our children and our grandchildren every single hour.
At the moment, the legacy of debt that we are passing on to future generations is sitting a grand total of $15,351,406,294,640.49.
But keep in mind that it is going up every single hour.
Meanwhile, our ability to service that debt is declining. We are rapidly getting poorer as a nation.
During 2011, the amount of money that left the United States exceeded the amount of money that entered the United States by more than a half a trillion dollars.
This gap is called a trade deficit, and it is absolutely ripping our economy to shreds.
For a moment, imagine Uncle Sam standing next to a giant pile of money on a map of the United States. Then imagine a half a trillion dollars being taken out of that pile every single year.
So why haven’t we totally run out of money yet?
Well, it is because we borrow those dollars back. In order to maintain our false standard of living, our federal government, our state governments and our local governments have to go out and beg the rest of the world to lend us our dollars back.
Sadly, our government schools have “dumbed-down” the population so much that most of them don’t even know what a “trade deficit” is anymore.
Meanwhile, our economic infrastructure is being gutted like a fish.
Look, I know that I go over this point over and over and over, but it is absolutely imperative that we all understand this.
The half a trillion dollars a year that leaves this country every year could have gone to support businesses and jobs inside the United States.
But instead it is going to support businesses and jobs on the other side of the world.
The consequences of this are absolutely devastating.
According to U.S. Representative Betty Sutton, an average of 23 manufacturing facilities a day closed down in the United States during 2010. Overall, more than 56,000 manufacturing facilities in the United States have shut down since 2001.
Even many so-called “American companies” have been bought up by the rest of the world. The following comes from a recent article posted on Economy In Crisis….
RCA is now a French company, Zenith is a Korean company. Frigidaire is a Swedish company. IBM’s Personal Computer Division—with its 500 patents—is now a Chinese company. Westinghouse Nuclear Energy’s major shareholder is Toshiba—a Japanese Company. Lucent Technologies, a former research division of AT&T, along with all the patents acquired from the beginning of the phone system, is now a French company. In 2008, Brazilian-Belgian brewing company InBev purchased the iconic American brewer Anheuser-Busch, makers of Budweiser. With the sale of these manufacturing companies, the future profit and technologies all belong to foreign entities.
We once had the greatest economic machine in the history of the world.
Now it is being dismantled and bought up by foreigners.
When America’s economic infrastructure declines, that means that there are less jobs available for all of us.
As I wrote about the other day, the employment situation in this country is not getting better and we have never even come close to recovering from the recession that started back in 2008.
During 2008 and 2009, the U.S. economy lost millions of jobs. Since the beginning of 2010, the percentage of the U.S. population that has had a job has remained very stable….
Normally, when a recession ends the percentage of Americans that have a job bounces back pretty dramatically.
So considering the fact that the employment situation has never recovered from the last financial crisis, what is going to happen when the next financial crisis hits?
And most of the jobs that have been “created” during this so-called “recovery” have been low income jobs. In fact, if you look closely at the employment numbers that were released last Friday, you will find that the vast majority of the “new jobs” were part-time jobs.
But you cannot pay a mortgage and support a family on a part-time job.
Sadly, the truth is that median household income in America has been steadily dropping over the past several years. Tens of millions of American families are deeply struggling and more Americans than ever are falling into poverty.
Back in the year 2000, about one out of every nine Americans was living in poverty. Today, about one out of every seven Americans is living in poverty.
All of this is causing a great deal of anxiety in America today. Large numbers of Americans know that something has fundamentally changed, even if they don’t understand the specifics. That is one reason why sites such as this one have become so popular. People want some answers.
And once people get some answers about what is really happening, they tend to want to prepare for the hard times that are coming.
In a few days, a new series on National Geographic entitled “Doomsday Preppers” premieres. The mainstream media is starting to take notice of the growing “prepper” movement in America today. It is estimated that there are at least 2 million “preppers” in the United States at this point. Of course people are “prepping” for a whole host of reasons, but the number one concern among most groups of preppers is the economy.
As the economy crumbles, more Americans than ever have decided that it is not a good thing to be 100% dependent on the system.
Back in 2008 and 2009, millions of Americans suddenly lost their jobs. Because they did not have any finances stored up, large numbers of them also lost their homes. Many went from being solidly middle class to being out on the street in a matter of months.
That doesn’t have to happen to you. Instead of blowing your money on frivolous things, do what you can to set something aside for the difficult times that are on the horizon.
A lot of those “in the know” are quietly making their own preparations. For example, legendary film director James Cameron (Avatar, Titanic and Terminator) has purchased more than 2600 acres of farmland in New Zealand and he is getting out of the U.S. for good apparently.
Unfortunately, most of us do not have the resources for something like that. But what most of us can do is we can change our priorities and start focusing on the things that will help us survive the hard times that are coming.
So are you ready?
Michael has an undergraduate degree in Commerce from the University of Virginia and a law degree from the University of Florida law school. He also has an LLM from the University of Florida law school. Michael has worked for some of the largest law firms in Washington D.C., but now is mostly focus on trying to make a difference in the world.