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Morning Call: All Eyes on AAPL

March 19th, 2012

Last week was a powerful one for the markets, as most sectors are in multiyear highs or approaching them. Transports played a bit of catch up as did the Russell and the energy complex.   Tech, home builders and banks lead the way.

As we enter this week, the news overnight has been mostly (NASDAQ:AAPL).  They are hosting a 9:00a.m conference call on what to do with


their mounting cash.  How the market treats the stock could give clues whether a rest is due overall for the Indices.

Stock right now is trading over $600 the prior pivot highs.  I think the highest probability for them to be able to just “sell the news” would be if they do a special onetime dividend.   What AAPL bulls would like to see is a consistent Dividend with a 2%-3% yield combined with authorization for a share buyback program.   Either way- it will be fast and furious and not for everyone.  The first 15-30 minutes will be important as well as the first 60 minute range.   I will have more later on this.

SPX(S&P)

Hit the first resistance area outlined last week 1404-1407( I mentioned this would be a good spot to take some profits and trim extended stocks)

Big Macro resistance lies around 1420-1440

SPX support

Very tight upper support stands at 1396-1398

The recent floor of support stands at 1389-1392

Big support stands at the Prior break out highs around 1372-1377

Tech

(NASDAQ:AAPL)- see above statement – I will have more closer.

(NASDAQ:AMZN)- still in a lower macro wedge- Overall seems bearish.  Above 185.68 and it could be good for a cash flow bounce type trade

(NASDAQ:NFLX)- trying to perk up.  I see a Descending channel that could be resolved to the upside.  A strong move and close above $111-112 can get this going again

(NADSDAQ:GOOG)- acting much better after closing above most of its moving averages on 3/13.  It’s trying to get above recent midlevel channel.  Still hard to trade but investors should be rewarded later this year for staying the course.

(NADSDAQ:LNKD)- stalling around the $94-$95 area.  As long as it stays above 88-89 it’s fine.  in order to get going it must take out that $94-95 area to get going.

(NADSDAQ:RIMM)- got some volume on Friday- maybe it can be can continue for cash flow-  but I wouldn’t expect much.

(NYSEArca:VMW)- great trade since the 102 pivot buy- it can use a rest

Banks- this group was powerful last week. Actually strong all year.  I did trim the rest of my holding there into Friday

(NYSEArca:JPM)- Continues to lead and is a bit extended.

(NYSEArca:GS)- absorbed the Oped pretty well.  Seems like it’s flagging for another trade-  use $123-$125 as the next pivot

(NYSEArca:BAC)- was my targeted trade for cash flow above $8.25- it closed strong Friday around 9.80.  Next major resistance zone is 10.05-10.27  I would not chase it up here, but be careful if you’re trying a cute short.  Some started Friday and are a bit scared.

(NYSEArca:IYT) – bounced Friday back to the upper range

(NYSEArca:OIH)- some money rotated there on Friday- (NYSEArca:XEC),  (NYSEArca:EOG), (NYSEArca:PXD),  (NYSEArca:OXY) Look okay-  (NYSEArca:SLB) and (NYSEArca:HAL) woke up a bit

(NYSEArca:USO)/oil- is trying to turn higher- USO needs to get over $41.20ish for me to add.

(NYSEArca:TBT)- in order for this trade to keep the upper momentum.  It should hold the $20.30-$20.45 area.  This is where I will look to buy some back that I sold over $21

Casinos- still look good

(NYSEArca:LVS) and (NASDQ:WYNN) could use a bit of a rest

(NYSEArca:CZR)- is acting okay even with the secondary announcement- holding above $12 would be constructive

(NADSDAQ:DNKN)- announced a 22 million share offering. I would be happy if it holds $31-$31.20  — crucial support for me to stay involved for momentum would be $30.50-$30.70-  (that is where I would add if it can hold)

Markets have come a long way- the chorus is growing louder for a correction.  I still see  a ton of great action and nice rotation.  Holding stocks that act well with some hedges using a tier system has been working

Busy morning- I will have more later

Scott Redler is the Chief Strategic Officer of T3 Live. He develops all tradingstrategiesfor the service and acts as the face of T3 Live. Mr. Redler focuses on thorough preparation and discipline as a trader. Scott Redler has been tradingequities for more than 10 years and has more recently received widespread recognition from the financialcommunity for his insightful, pragmatic approach. He began his career as a broker and venture capitalist where he was able to facilitate relationships that led him into trading. Beginning his trading career at Broadway Trading in 1999, Scott moved on with Marc Sperling to Sperling Enterprises, LLC after establishing himself as one of the best young tradersin the firm. As a manager at Sperling Enterprises, he maintained his status as a top trader in the industry while working closely with all traders in the firm to dramatically increase performance. Scott has participated in more than 30 triathlons and one IronMan triathlon, exhibiting a work ethic that also defines his trading. His vast knowledge and meticulous attention to detail has led to regular appearances on CNBC, Fox Businessand Bloomberg, and he has been quoted in the Wall StreetJournaland Investor’s Business Daily among other publications. Scott produces much of the media and content available to subscribers and followers.

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Scott J, Redler is long (NYSEArca:USO), (NADSDAQ:NFLX) (NADSDAQ:RIMM), (NADSDAQ:SIMG) (NADSDAQ:DNKN), (NYSEArca:LVS), (NYSEArca:CZR), (NYSEArca:JCP), (NYSEArca:TBT), (NADSDAQ:LNKD), (NADSDAQ:DRYS)

Short (NYSEArca:SPY)


NYSE:IYT, NYSE:OIH, NYSE:TBT, NYSE:USO


 

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