Emerging Market ETF Breakdown Reveals The Bears To Watch (EEM, EFA, EWY, EWM, IDX, EWW, EWZ)
Scott Martin: From a technical point of view, emerging markets have gotten a nice lift over the last week. But not all slices of the globe have bounced back equally.
Since bottoming out at $41.17 on April 10, the broad iShares MSCI Emerging ETF (NYSEARCA:EEM) has rebounded a reasonable 3%.
That bottoming move was worth noting because it was the first time either EEM or its developed-market counterpart (NYSEARCA:EFA) tested the 200-day support line since the end of January.
Both funds bounced, but the recovery move was clean for EEM and quite a bit dirtier for EFA, which broke deep below support — then around $52.23 — and closed within a penny of its intraday low on April 10.
EEM held the line much better and is now exactly midway between that long-term support and the more recently established 50-day resistance up at $43.32. Poised as it is in the center of the channel, it could go either way.
As the sum of some big moving parts, EEM’s next big directional swing will also be a factor of how its suballocations are behaving. Because each market — and in theory, each stock — represented in the fund trades separately, we can break them out and analyze them on their own.
Most of the big markets that EEM represents are in a similar position between 50-day resistance and 200-day support.
However, Korea (NYSEARCA:EWY), which represents a full 15.1% of the fund, looks relatively strong, having at least flirted with crossing resistance every day since April 13. Right now at $58.98, we’re only a 0.6% move from the next test.
The heaviest weighted country in EEM, China (NYSEARCA:YAO), isn’t quite in position to break out, but with only a 1.6% margin between it and resistance, it’s clearly getting close.
Malaysia (NYSEARCA:EWM), Indonesia (NYSEARCA:IDX) and Mexico (NYSEARCA:EWW) are faring even better, sitting more or less comfortably on top of the 50-day line and drawing support from it as well as the longer-term trend. Between them, they only account for 11% of EEM, but it’s nice to have a counterweight to less technically fortunate constituents.
All together, these five markets weigh in at about 43% of EEM.
On the bearish side, India (NYSEARCA:INDY) broke down completely about a month ago and now faces fairly strong resistance from both the 50- and 200-day lines. This is an opportunity — a reversion to trend could open up a 2.7% move to the upside — but until those lines are conquered, the overall picture does not look good.
The real red flag, however, is Brazil (NYSEARCA:EWZ), which cracked below the 200-day support line before its counterparts and now seems to be losing its struggle to stay above it. With $62.53 now functioning as resistance, EWZ is wide open to the downside.
And as the third-biggest allocation in EEM, Brazil’s problems definitely drag on the global fund.
Call India and Brazil the bear ‘arguments’ within EEM. They represent about 20.6% of the overall portfolio.
If roughly 20% of the fund is in bad technical shape, 40% looks good and the rest is neutral or on trend, that’s not bad.
But watch the leaders for signs of faltering.
Emerging Money provides insightful and timely information about the increasingly important world of Emerging Market investments. CNBC Emerging Markets Contributor Tim Seymour leads the team of Emerging Money to bring you cutting edge global news and analysis.