Jeff Kennedy, Chief Commodity Analyst at Elliott Wave: Major Crude Oil Crash Is Coming! (USO, OIL)
Crude oil has fallen 20% in less than 2 months. The drop has been sufficient to prompt most bears to declare victory and cover their shorts or even ponder getting long near last year’s lows in the mid-$70s. But Jeff Kennedy, chief commodity analyst at Elliott Wave International thinks those buyers are early by about $40.
He bases his outlook on pattern recognition and psychology. His work suggests crude will plunge to the December 2008 lows of $38 a barrel then pause prior to falling another 50%. All in, Kennedy is forecasting an additional 80% drop in crude to $16.70 a barrel; a level not seen since November 0f 2001.
As a technician Kennedy pays little heed to the standard crude narratives involving Middle East tensions, supply disruptions, and refining. To him the charts tell the story and “the story right now in the crude oil price chart argues for a further decline well into 2013.”
See the full “Breakout” interview below:
United States Oil (NYSEARCA:USO) The United States Oil Fund® LP is a domestic exchange-traded security designed to track the movements of West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”) light, sweet crude oil. USO issues units that may be purchased and sold on the NYSE Arca.
The investment objective of USO is for the daily changes in percentage terms of its units’ net asset value (“NAV”) to reflect the daily changes in percentage terms of the spot price of light, sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, as measured by the changes in the price of the futures contract for light, sweet crude oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (the “NYMEX”) that is the near month contract to expire, except when the near month contract is within two weeks of expiration, in which case it will be measured by the futures contract that is the next month contract to expire (the “Benchmark Oil Futures Contract”), less USO’s expenses.
iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil TR Index ETN (NYSEARCA:OIL) The iPath® S&P GSCI® Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN is a sub-index of the S&P GSCI® Commodity Index. The S&P GSCI® Crude Oil Total Return Index reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contract plus the Treasury Bill rate of interest that could be earned on funds committed to the trading of the underlying contracts.