Robert Prechter: Stock Market Drop Will Weaken Obama Re-Election Odds (XHB)
Polls released yesterday showed President Obama has a narrowing lead nationally over Mitt Romney. The Wall Street Journal / NBC News Poll shows Obama out-polling his presumptive opponent in November’s election at 47% to 44%, nationally, and having a much larger lead in swing states. The polls suggest a stabilizing of Obama’s odds of re-election, which remain down some 10% since April, according to intrade.com.
Meanwhile the stock market has recovered from a May swoon, picking up nearly 6% from the closing lows in early June, driven in no small part by a greater than 10% gain in housing stocks, as measured by the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (NYSEARCA:XHB). Despite the recovery, the S&P 500 is 6.5% off 2012 highs.
To Robert Prechter, founder of Elliott Wave International, the similarities between the polls and the market are no coincidence. As Prechter told Breakout in March, both markets and elections are decided by how people feel.
The Euro’s Demise Has Been Set in Motion: Are you protected?
"Nationalism will emerge. Healthier countries will not see fit to spend their hard earned money to bail out their less responsible neighbors."
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See the full “Breakout” interview below:
How many US Presidents did not survive re-election? Below is a list of Incumbent U.S. presidents that were denied Re-Election.
- George H.W. Bush: Republican George H.W. Bush was the 41st president of the United States, serving from 1989 to 1993. He lost a campaign for re-election in 1992 to Democrat William Jefferson Clinton, who went on to serve two full terms.
- Jimmy Carter: Democrat Jimmy Carter was the 39th president of the United States, serving from 1977 to 1981. He lost a campaign for re-election in 1980 to Republican Ronald Reagan, who went on to serve two full terms.
- Gerald Ford: Republican Gerald R. Ford was the 38th president of the United States, serving from 1974 to 1977. He lost a campaign for re-election in 1976 to Democrat Jimmy Carter, who went on to serve one term.
- Herbert Hoover: Republican Herbert Hoover was the 31st president of the United States, serving from 1929 to 1933. He lost a campaign for re-election in 1932 to Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt, who went on to serve three full terms.
- William Howard Taft: Republican William Howard Taft was the 27th president of the United States, serving from 1909 to 1913. He lost a campaign for re-election in 1912 to Democrat Woodrow Wilson, who went on to serve two full terms.
- Benjamin Harrison: Republican Benjamin Harrison was the 23rd president of the United States, serving from 1889 to 1893. He lost a campaign for re-election in 1892 to Democrat Grover Cleveland.
- Martin Van Buren: Democrat Martin Van Buren served as the eighth president of the United States, serving from 1837 to 1841. He lost a campaign for re-election in 1840 to Whig William Henry Harrison, who died shortly after taking office.
- John Quincy Adams: John Quincy Adams was the sixth president of the United States, serving from 1825 to 1829. He lost a campaign for re-election in 1828 to Andrew Jackson.
- John Adams: Federalist John Adams, one of America’s Founding Fathers, was the second president of the United States, having served from 1797 to 1801.



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