Home > Did You Fall For This Silver Conspiracy Theory?
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Did You Fall For This Silver Conspiracy Theory?

August 9th, 2012

Kevin McElroy: I promised I would stay on top of the “silver manipulation” story – and there’s another wrinkle in this story to share. The Financial Times reported yesterday that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC: the federal government’s regulatory body in charge of U.S. commodities trading) will drop its investigation into silver futures manipulation.

Before I get into it, you might recall that the specter of the precious metals conspiracy theory goes back far beyond this latest story, and further back even than the Hunt brothers’ infamous plot to corner the market on silver in the early 1980s – which really happened, by the way.

Unfortunately, unlike the Hunt brothers’ saga, most of these stories don’t need to be remotely true or even plausible in order for investors to fall for them.

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The legend of lost or missing or stolen hoards seems to transcend time as well as our ability to think rationally. Maybe like fire and sweet food, the ideas of mislaid gold and silver are so intertwined with our cultures and DNA that we’ll never escape them.

As they say, conspiracy theories are better than sex – though I suspect that’s because conspiracy theorists aren’t in the market to have sex, so they’re forced to settle for conspiracies…

In any event, it’s morally satisfying to blame someone else when you don’t get the immediate gratification you seek from your investments. GET A FREE TREND ANALYSIS FOR ANY STOCK HERE!

That’s why I think many otherwise rational people are so quick to blame big bad banks like JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) when they didn’t immediately become super rich from their silver holdings.

Apparently it’s not enough that – in spite of weakness over the past year – silver has still nearly doubled in price over the past few years, and has nearly tripled in five years…

No, that’s not enough! Silver conspiracy theorists need to see silver trade higher every day in a straight line to the moon, or SOMEONE is to blame.

To blow away any remnants of this conspiracy theory, consider how much money a JP Morgan would have lost if they were shorting silver nearly anytime over the past 10 years in their effort to manipulate the price.

Think about it…

I’m not claiming that JP Morgan is not a big bad bank that should be suspected of all kinds of shady dealings.

What I’m saying is that if they shorted silver at pretty much any time except for April of 2011, they’ve likely lost lots of money.

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  1. stefan
    October 9th, 2013 at 00:05 | #1

    Good Logical article. Patience is a virtue. I’m kind of over the conspiracy theory because I don’t care. It is still very possible. Your analysis shows JP Morgan’s strategy in only one dimension. You say they did not manipulate silver because they made no money off silver. Take a step back and look at the whole picture. We need to look at everything Morgan and friends did individually and as a whole. Way to complex for me to understand or care but I know they are doing it and fooling many of us. You want conspiracy? I want to dissect the brainpans at Morgan and big banks and see how they willingly shot their foot off in 2008 but gained a lot more because of the government “rescue”. I’m simplifying but you get the picture. Call it part of their restricted 2007 10-year strategy.

  2. Alex
    July 24th, 2013 at 11:30 | #2

    The term “conspiracy theory” was coined by the CIA after the Kennedy assassination (the first one) to put thinking people on the fringe. They obviously weren’t worried about the koolaid drinkers like the writer of this article. If he had any analytical thought process it would dawn on him that thousands of “conspiracies” occur daily (look up the definition of the word) or he is just a shill…..

  3. Justen
    April 29th, 2013 at 18:53 | #3

    Kevin McDouchetard + no facts = Owned. People are not buying this bs anymore you’ve got a serious problem confidence is lost!!!

  4. BETH
    February 24th, 2013 at 20:24 | #4

    I guess all of your readers told you off and they are right. You were such an absurd disappointment and a waste of my time. In the future, please have some kind of facts before you try to write.

  5. hometownhiker
    December 1st, 2012 at 06:27 | #5

    I had sex with a conspiracy theorist, once. I think she may have been an alien.

  6. Agent P
    August 13th, 2012 at 11:44 | #6

    The key reason that guys like McElroy, Bob Moriarty, Ned Schmidt and a whole host of others in the PM space take such a condescending position towards PM price manipulation, is because they want to be seen as ‘above the fray’… For reasons that have to do more with subscriber $$$, over any sort of reverence for the Truth… Once one is tarred with the ‘conspiracy’ brush, the onus immediately falls on the accused to prove themselves out of something that needs no further proof, therefore neatly tying up the argument in favor of those who see themselves as ‘above the fray’…

    Sadly for them, in a day & age of ‘cut & past’, saving in a folder for future reference, CREDIBILITY will have the last word, and the aforementioned gents above are going to have one Hell of a time trying to weasel their way out of all that has been pooh-poohed over the years regarding the ‘conspiracy’ of PM price fixing and the ties to officialdom.

  7. Agent P
    August 13th, 2012 at 11:35 | #7

    First and most deadly move in the art of the battle to sway public opinion: Put your opponent immediately on the defensive by forcing them to prove your accusations false. In other words: Discredit and marginalize.

    How is it done? One of the most effective methods is to wave your hand and label your opponent a ‘conspiracy theorist’. Works all the time – or as long as your audience cares not to look into the matter themselves and arrive at their own conclusions…

  8. Joe
    August 13th, 2012 at 00:08 | #8

    “Kevin McElroy is a top rated commodity researcher and analyst”

    Sheesh… says it all… apparently Kevin is among the best out there. He is so good, and just like all the other top analysts, not one of them has any clue of the impropriety of the operations of the LBMA. Apparently, he and others have no idea that the LBMA does not report how much real gold and silver they hold, nor how much paper gold and silver has been sold to LBMA customers (although purported to be backed by the real thing). This is amongst the biggest scams going. And not one of these experts sees any need to take the LBMA to task on what exactly is going on with the LBMA. Instead, they devote themselves to beating up and bashing the only ones who are making some effort to get to the bottom of this scam by reporting on the manipulations that are happening. Note that ALL the top fund managers – that is the folks who deal with real money (unlike the top rated analysts who just talk about what they don’t have), are all in agreement about the scamming going on in financial markets. Believe the people with the money….

  9. johny
    August 11th, 2012 at 17:46 | #9

    another JPM crook

  10. Todd
    August 11th, 2012 at 15:27 | #10

    Years ago, I was fired for writing this kind of unsubstantiated article.

  11. Gold meister
    August 11th, 2012 at 14:21 | #11

    Hey guy, be easy on Kevin, he is in fine company! I’m sure Kitco’s John Nadler and Jeff Christian BOTH think he’s a bright new star in the dying community of precious metal mis-info media shills.

  12. Bullettree
    August 11th, 2012 at 13:59 | #12

    Arrogant shmuck

  13. shortbus savant
    August 11th, 2012 at 10:41 | #13

    @John Henderson

    exactly, john. and logic like: “Apparently it’s not enough that – in spite of weakness over the past year – silver has still nearly doubled in price over the past few years, and has nearly tripled in five years” should quaiify this writer for a spot on the cftc when one of the current crop of hear no evil, see no evil, monkeys retire.

    btw, i do not doubt there is a conspiracy to suppress the silver price, mr. wyatt, and my sex life with the opposite sex is doing fine, thanks.

    now maybe mr. wyatt can go back to having sex…. with himself.

    what? you won’t post this comment as is? making me amend it? why?
    mr. wyatt brought up the topic of sexual “shortcomings” with silver investors, not me or any other commenter. there are no curse words, racial undertones, religious bashing, or anything of the sort whatsoever in my comment. i take it only mr. wyatt and the privileged media can make these kinds of statements then?
    you can dish it out but can’t take it… typical.

  14. Jeff Monterose
    August 11th, 2012 at 10:07 | #14

    What a snarky, pompous, pseudo-intellectual, statist dxxx bag the author is.

  15. Denis
    August 11th, 2012 at 08:09 | #15

    For you to jump to the conclusion that those of us who wish to see the criminals purged from the system are “buying into Conspiracy Theories because things didn’t go our way on a trade” is not only absurd, but it is a clear sign of your inexperience. Maybe you should stick to writing elsewhere about non-financial topics that you may have a better understanding of.

    But I suppose your THREE years experience in the biz might have a little to do with the naive perspective you have taken in your article. I wonder if you will feel the same way about market manipulation in 20 years when your generation finally takes over, and purges out the last of the banking criminals and politicians who are currently ruining our capital markets.

  16. shortbus savant
    August 11th, 2012 at 08:08 | #16

    @John Henderson

    exactly, john. and logic like: “Apparently it’s not enough that – in spite of weakness over the past year – silver has still nearly doubled in price over the past few years, and has nearly tripled in five years” should quaiify this writer for a spot on the cftc when one of the current crop of hear no evil, see no evil, monkeys retire.

    btw, i do not doubt there is a conspiracy to suppress the silver price, mr. wyatt, and my sex life with the opposite sex is doing fine, thanks.

    now maybe mr. wyatt can go back to having sex…. with himself.

  17. simon a welsh
    August 11th, 2012 at 02:41 | #17

    Just testing before I bother to write. Hendersons comment is a good start at exposing third rate journalism but tough to prove statistically and just remains a smart comment. So let’s prove it now. Let’s take two other valuable precious metals Pt and Au. Now go back to the tape and look at activity at around 2:00-3:00PM every trading day. It’s usually around 2:30PM. Lay it out on a graph, don’t even bother with statistics. Give the graph to a fairly bright third grader for comment. Of course, the commodity exchanges can’t see that one? – DUH.

  18. george bush
    August 11th, 2012 at 02:33 | #18

    werwer

  19. August 11th, 2012 at 00:15 | #19

    The “conspiracies are all fiction” writer may review http://www.silverstealers.net to see how many minutes/hours of it he can withstand.

  20. Ano N. Mous
    August 10th, 2012 at 22:34 | #20

    Fantastic comment Mr.Henderson. This guy just embarrassed himself BIG time, as he has no idea what he’s talking about. Just goes to show that any clown can get a writing gig these days. Either he’s totally ignorant, or being paid by the guilty parties involved. Either way, not looking good for him.

  21. John Henderson
    August 9th, 2012 at 20:53 | #21

    Your statement, “What I’m saying is that if they shorted silver at pretty much any time except for April of 2011, they’ve likely lost lots of money,” shows that you have no understanding of the “conspiracy theorists” arguments. The cartel orchestrates takedowns on an intraday and intraweek basis. They sell a pile of short contracts (usually overnight), let the spec long stop loss orders hit, and then cover their shorts at a much lower price. And they end up with the same short position at the end of the takedown. They make a profit while simultaneously serving their caretakers (the US government) by suppressing the price of silver. I suggest you read before you write.

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