Home > Don Hays: Near Perfect Conditions Suggest 30% Rally for Stocks in Next 12 Months (DIA, SPY, QQQ)

Don Hays: Near Perfect Conditions Suggest 30% Rally for Stocks in Next 12 Months (DIA, SPY, QQQ)

September 21st, 2012

Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear, not the absence of fear,” Mark Twain once said. For investors, Twain’s words seem particularly timely right now, given the transitioning state of unease that has been gripping the stock market for the first full week of the post-QE3 era. In fact, if you talk to veteran strategist Don Hays, of Hays Advisory in Nashville, he’ll say that what we need right now is a little more fear and the conditions would be absolutely perfect.

“We’ve looked at the last 50 years, and when you have conditions very similar to today — with monetary policy extremely positive, valuations extremely positive, and psychology a little queasy here — you still have very high odds that in the next 12 months you’re going to make money,” Hays says in the attached video.

In fact, 50 years of analyzing these three variables has shown that when they do all line up, there’s an 84% chance that stocks will be higher in the next 12 months by an average of 26%.

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If he’s right, by this time next year the S&P 500 would be on its way to topping 1900, firmly in record territory. It’s why, in a recent note to clients, Hays described himself as being “long-term very bullish, but short-term hanging in there.” While he’s not predicting a washout in stock on the level of what we saw in 2010 and 20111, he does think the next few months will be tough and could see as much as a 10% decline.

You can see the full “Breakout” interview below:



The SPDR® S&P 500® ETF is a fund that, before expenses, generally corresponds to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP:.INX)

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEArca:DIA)

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, generally correspond to the price and yield performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI)

PowerShares QQQ (NASDAQ:QQQ)

PowerShares QQQ™, formerly known as “QQQ” or the “NASDAQ- 100 Index Tracking Stock”, is an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq-100 Index (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX). The Fund will, under most circumstances, consists of all of stocks in the Index. The Index includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market based on market capitalization. The Fund is rebalanced and reconstituted quarterly.



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