Updating Gold’s Structure and Key Inflection Level (GLD, IAU, GDX, UGL, SLV)
Corey Rosenbloom: We’re watching a key inflection level in Gold and I wanted to update the current chart landscape to show these levels along with the developing short-term structure.
Let’s start with the Daily Chart and highlight the easy-reference levels:
In simplest terms, the upside resistance barrier exists from $1,680 to $1,700 while the downside support level trades from $1,630 to $1,640.
Starting with the upside chart-based resistance, we note the falling 50d EMA at $1,685 and the upper Daily Bollinger Band at $1,697.
Beyond that, we can easily see a price-based resistance high (the most recent swing high) at the $1,700 “Round Number” level.
You can also visualize a falling longer-term trendline starting at the October 2012 high which ends at the present $1,700 level. Get A Free Trend Analysis For Any Stock Here!
From the downside support perspective, we see a longer rising trendline into the $1,660 region which is just above the most recent “spike” reversal lows off the key $1,635 level. The lower Daily Bollinger Band is $1,645.
In other words, the short-term bounce-around boundaries rest from $1,630 to $1,700 and that’s where price has been trading recently.
Let’s look at the intraday perspective on both the 30-min and 15-min charts for more details:
Gold (Continuous Futures @GC) 15-min (finer detail):
On the 30-min chart, we see the operating short-term Fibonacci Retracement levels, the most important of which are $1,666 (current short-term high) and $1,658 (short-term low).
As price interacts with these levels, we note the short-term positive momentum divergence into the key $1,650 support line which suggests a possible bullish or upside resolution toward $1,675.
That short-term bullish expectation would trigger on a breakthrough above $the recent high into $1,667.
Continuing the logic, a breakthrough above $1,675 (the short-term target) would suggest that gold could travel higher toward the $1,700 daily chart confluence.
When planning trades, we have to be prepared for both outcomes (a breakout or a breakdown) and thus bearish trades would trigger under the recent support lows into $1,655.
A clean breakdown under $1,655 could target the prior swing low and support cluster near $1,635. Get A Free Trend Analysis For Any Stock Here!
Even if you don’t trade gold, you can use the same type of logic (starting with the higher timeframe and creating a game-plan from the details of the lower frame) on the stocks and markets you trade.
This type of “Game-Planning” logic is what I’ll be describing in Thursday January 31’st educational webinar (intraday planning and day structure).
Related Tickers: iShares Silver Trust (NYSEARCA:SLV), (NYSEARCA:GDX), iShares Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:IAU), SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLD), Ultra Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:UGL).
My name is Corey Rosenbloom, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) trader,educator, analyst, and I am excited to share with you my experiences studying and trading the markets and to hear from you regarding your experiences, challenges, and frustrations, and successes. My goal is to create a community dedicated to reaching out to those who have been burned by the market or are anxious about risking their money to make money in the stock, options, or futures markets. Together, we can share strategies and learn how to overcome crippling fears that keep us from achieving our highest potential.