Margin Debt On The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Is At A Record High
Michael Lombardi: One basic rule of economics states that when the demand increases for an item and supply for that same item declines, its price usually increases. Let’s apply this to the gold This is a story of how the big banks pulled gold prices from under our feet, but why their plan for the stock market won’t pan out…
When gold bullion prices went into semi-crash mode in late spring of this year, some stories written by financial analysts suggest big banks colluding together to bring gold bullion prices crashing down. If you remember, The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) came out with a report saying gold bullion prices would go down…and magically, they did!
At about the same time Goldman Sachs gave a “sell” recommendation on gold bullion, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) was selling gold bullion on the paper market. The plunge in gold bullion prices started in April—but JPMorgan was selling gold since the beginning of the year. From January to April, the big bank’s house account had a net short position of 14,749 100-ounce COMEX gold contracts—or about 1.47 million ounces of gold bullion. (Source: “Year to Date Delivery Notices,” CME Clearing, August 19, 2013.)
I’ll be the first to admit it: the gold bullion price takedown that started in April sure looks and smells fishy.
Once the sell-off in gold bullion began, no one cared about demand or supply (the reason why gold bullion prices increase or decline). The fundamentals were thrown out the window. Irrationality and emotions took over, and investors ran for the exit.
Gold bullion prices have started to climb back up. They are above $1,300 an ounce and marching towards the next big level at $1,400.
The gold “play” is over for the big banks; they’re onto something else—the stock market.
The wave of optimism towards the stock market continues to gain momentum. Big banks are telling us the stock market is going to go higher.
Some calling for higher stock prices say earnings are good, some say valuations are good, some say the economy is improving, and others say investors will move out of the bond market and into the stock market.
Goldman Sachs says the S&P 500 will increase eight percent in the next 12 months. Its target for the S&P 500 is 1,825. Its reason: economic growth will pick up its pace. (Source: Bloomberg, August 13, 2013.)
When I look at Goldman Sachs’ latest prediction, I have two questions: Will it and other big banks be right on the stock market like they were on gold?