In a major US dollar devaluation crisis, which would occur if the US would fail to raise the debt ceiling on Thursday October 17th, there should be a significant impact on the gold price. Jim Rickards wrote about this in his book ‘Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis’ in which he “envisages a series of ‘black swan’ events that trigger a loss of confidence in the US dollar precipitating a rush to get out of the greenback.”
In such a scenario, the market would question the Fed’s staying power, which is the most fundamental aspect of the current monetary system. A dollar collapse would ensue and gold could double in price overnight.
The following comes from Arabianmoney:
The US President is then left with no alternative but to take charge under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. He nationalizes all gold held on US soil and suspends bond trading to halt the dollar’s fall. A bipartisan commission is appointed with 30 days to sort out what to do next.
Basically the US dollar has to be reissued and reset to a new value based on a much higher price of gold. If this all sounds far-fetched then it is. But so was the subprime mortgage crisis before it actually struck and yet it happened.
The unsinkable can sink, and so could the US dollar, just as HSBC was the biggest loser in the subprime crisis (although the bank did not sink because its compartments held and it managed to right itself without a government bailout).
Other currencies in over-indebted economies have suffered this fate in the past. However, as Jim Rickards points out in his book the US still has a final card to play in the global currency wars as it has 57 per cent of the world’s gold reserves within its boundaries and so would command any new global monetary system as it did the old. To that extent it would not be different this time around.
But the gold price would be reset permanently higher, and $7,500-10,000 an ounce in old dollars is Mr. Rickards best estimate.
This article is brought to you courtesy of Gold Silver Worlds, who advocates to own physical gold and silver outside the banking system.
Related Tickers: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SLV).