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Preliminary June 2014 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Now At 3 Month Low

June 13th, 2014

dataDoug Short: The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for April came in at 81.2, a decline from the May final of 81.9. Today’s number came in below the Investing.com forecast of 83.0.

See the chart below for a long-term perspective on this widely watched indicator. I’ve highlighted recessions and included real GDP to help evaluate the correlation between the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the broader economy.

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To put today’s report into the larger historical context since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is now 5 percent below the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 3 percent below the geometric mean. The current index level is at the 36th percentile of the 438 monthly data points in this series.

The Michigan average since its inception is 85.1. During non-recessionary years the average is 87.4. The average during the five recessions is 69.3. So the latest sentiment number puts us 11.9 points above the average recession mindset and 6.2 points below the non-recession average.

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