New Jobless Claims At 315K, Close To Forecast [Dow Jones Industrial Average]

July 3, 2014 11:05am NYSE:DIA NYSE:SPY

Economy recessionDoug Short: Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor:

In the week ending June 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 315,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 312,000 to 313,000. The 4-week moving average was 315,000, an increase of 500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 314,250 to 314,500.

There were no special factors impacting this week’s initial claims. [See full report]

Today’s seasonally adjusted number at 315K just a tad higher than the forecast of 314K. The less volatile four-week moving average is now 4,500 above its nearly seven-year interim low set four weeks ago.

Here is a close look at the data over the past few years (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend in relation to the last recession and the volatility in recent months.

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As we can see, there’s a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (the highlighted number) is a more useful number than the weekly data. Here is the complete data series.

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Occasionally I see articles critical of seasonal adjustment, especially when the non-adjusted number better suits the author’s bias. But a comparison of these two charts clearly shows extreme volatility of the non-adjusted data, and the 4-week MA gives an indication of the recurring pattern of seasonal change in the second chart (note, for example, those regular January spikes).

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Because of the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted weekly data, a 52-week moving average gives a better sense of the secular trends. I’ve added a linear regression through the data. We can see that this metric continued to fall below the long-term trend stretching back to 1968.

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A Four-Year Comparison

Here is a calendar-year overlay since 2009 using the 4-week moving average. The purpose is to show the relative annual slopes since the peak in the spring of 2009. Last year (blue line at the bottom) hit a trough at the end of September. After zigzagging higher and lower, it set a new interim low in early April and a slightly lower interim low four weeks ago. The latest number is 4,500 above that low.

For an analysis of unemployment claims as a percent of the labor force, see my recent commentary What Do Weekly Unemployment Claims Tell us About Recession Risk? Here is a snapshot from that analysis.

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For a broader view of unemployment, see the latest update in my monthly series Unemployment and the Market Since 1948.

This article is brought to you courtesy of Doug Short from Advisor Perspectives.

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