The ramifications of a Trump presidency will be far-reaching, and the markets are so far completely ignoring the amount of uncertainty associated with it. From Bloomberg:
“This is probably the largest transition ideologically and in terms of substantive policy that we’ve seen in the U.S. in the last three quarters of a century,” Summers told Tom Keene in a Bloomberg Television interview Tuesday. “Those kinds of transitions have to be — given the central role of the US in the global system — matters of enormous uncertainty. I don’t think that’s fully recognized by markets.”
Summers said the combination of protectionist measures, along with big foreign policy changes and potential domestic social problems, should be reflected in the market action. But that’s simply not the case, with stocks continuing to rally unchecked since November.
He also downplayed the effects of repatriation of overseas cash by U.S. companies, noting that almost all of those firms already have plenty of cash held domestically as well. The monies will likely be used for dividends, buybacks, and M&A, rather than job creation, Summers said.
iShares S&P 500 Index ETF (NYSE:IVV) rose $1.35 (+0.6%) in premarket trading Tuesday. In 2016, the second largest ETF tied to the benchmark S&P 500 index gained 11.09%.