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Joseph L. Shaefer: Nothing has improved in the U.S.’, Europe’s, China’s, Brazil’s or the rest of the world’s economy. (Though we may enjoy a minor breather this week if the news is so-so. So-so is better than unmitigated Read more…
NYSE:FAS, NYSE:FAZ, NYSE:SDS, NYSE:SH, NYSE:TNA, NYSE:TZA, RWM
Joseph L. Shaefer: Let me clearly state that I do not and, through 40 years of up and down cycles, never have subscribed to the above quote. That in fact is the gist of this article. But I am hearing those words, or words like them Read more…
Sy Harding: Brace yourself for a recession. Central banks around the world seem to be doing so, making little effort to prevent it this time around, resigned to letting the business cycle play out. Read more…
Sy Harding: Note to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke: It’s happening, Ben. Your assurances of an economic recovery in the 2nd half are in the wind, blown away by the continuing string of terrible economic reports. The next recession is probably already underway! Read more…
Wednesday brought whipsaw action to the market as stocks finished modestly higher. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE:DIA) and the S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) tacked on 0.5% while the S&P MidCap 400 improved by 0.3%. The Nasdaq (NASDAQ:QQQ) eked out a 0.1% gain as the small-cap Read more…
Joseph L. Shaefer: It was Friday Night Smackdown last Friday when retail sales reached their highest level in 4 months, one factor propelling the markets higher that day. At almost the same time it was announced that consumer confidence has plunged to its lowest level since 1980. Read more…
NYSE:AGQ, NYSE:GLD, NYSE:SEF, NYSE:SH, NYSE:TLT, NYSE:UUP, RWM, SBB
Joseph L. Shaefer: One has to wonder. I haven’t railed against Wall Street’s program trading, dark pools, and high-frequency black box trading (without human intervention) in a while, though they certainly deserve it — and suffer from exposure to the light. I haven’t even reminded myself and my Read more…
Joseph L. Shaefer: To answer that question, let’s take a look at what’s bad and what’s good. (Yes. There is some good and it will get better. I am no Pollyanna — I wrote “The Myth of the Summer Rally” back on June 28th when everyone was wildly enthusiastic, all the news was good, and never Read more…
DOWN 5% in the first 86 days of the second quarter! UP 4.6% in the final four days! And most recently: Rising convincingly 4 days in July, then plunging just as convincingly the next 3 days, then roaring ahead yesterday based on some words spoken by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Read more…
Sy Harding: The Labor Department’s employment report on Friday pretty much took the hope out of Washington and Wall Street’s expectations that the economic slowdown in the first half of the year was just a soft spot that will quickly be replaced by strong growth in the current quarter and second Read more…
Joseph L. Shaefer: It would be a fine “flourish” indeed if I could answer the question posed by my headline that, long term, it would be the latter. Alas, long term, I am convinced that the U.S. government has embarked on a permanent policy of U.S. dollar degradation. Government leaders Read more…
Sy Harding: After six straight down weeks the S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) is down only 6% from its April peak. That’s not near enough to factor all the negatives into stock prices. Those negatives include the rapidly slowing U.S. economy, sharply rising global inflation, plunging global markets as Read more…
Joseph L. Shaefer: Reality does not always conform to expectations. I always said I wouldn’t buy a vacation home because everyone I know who owns one spends all their time there maintaining, gardening, fixing and working on it. Sort of like owning a boat. But here I am, working 12-hour days Read more…
Sy Harding: The endless string of economic reports of the last three or four months have not only been dismal, but just about universally worse than the consensus forecasts and estimates of Wall Street economists. Read more…
Joseph L. Shaefer: ‘Buy and hold’ or ‘momentum’: Which is better? In a word: neither. To quote an ad campaign that fell rather short of the mark, “This isn’t your father’s Oldsmobile any more.” Read more…
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