Posts Tagged ‘bears’

Stock Market Bubble vs. Impressive Bullish Breakout

October 21st, 2013

bearbull21Chris Ciovacco: Fed-Induced Mania or Massive Underperformance? The Federal Reserve has injected billions of dollars of freshly printed money into the global financial system via quantitative easing (QE). If you understand how QE works in the real world, Read more…


Dow Jones Industrial Average: Bears Have Reason To Hope

October 14th, 2013

bearbull21-150x1501Chris Ciovacco: Markets tend to be a bit obsessive. In recent months, traders shifted from taper-gate to familiar political posturing in Washington, D.C. The next obsession may be earnings Read more…


S&P 500: Buy The Market At All-Time Highs?

September 26th, 2013

buy-and-holdDavid Fabian: Recently the Federal Reserve gave the market exactly what it wanted by electing to forgo tapering its asset purchase program in favor of continued quantitative easing. This sent stocks, bonds, and commodities soaring Read more…


Dow Jones Industrial Average: Will The D.C. Standoff Derail The Bulls?

September 24th, 2013

bearbullChris Ciovacco: Never A Dull Moment. You can say a lot of things about working in the money management business, but you cannot include the words dull or boring in your commentary. The markets finally got past the overly anticipated Read more…


S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average: Tapering Bets Could Backfire For Stock Bears

July 15th, 2013

bearbull21Chris Ciovacco: Dual Mandate Says No Major Changes Coming: In 1977, Congress amended The Federal Reserve Act, stating the monetary policy objectives of the Federal Reserve are “to promote effectively the goals of maximum Read more…


Why Are Wall Street Insiders Making Huge Bearish Bets?

February 7th, 2013

Wall streetMichael Snyder: Why are corporate insiders dumping huge numbers of shares in their own companies right now?  Why are some very large investors suddenly making gigantic bets that the stock market Read more…


S&P 500 Index: Will The Smart Money Start To Sell This Rally?

January 23rd, 2013

Will The Wealthy Race To Dump Stocks and Other Financial Assets Before The Fiscal Cliff Kicks In?

November 13th, 2012

Michael Snyder: The election results made it abundantly clear that taxes are going to be going up, and right now a lot of wealthy people all over America are trying to figure out how to best position themselves for the hit that is coming.  There are a whole host of tax cuts that are set to expire Read more…


Why All Signs Point To A Major Stock Market Crash This Fall? (INDEXSP:.INX, SPY, TZA, GLD, FAZ)

August 28th, 2012

Michael Snyder: Is the stock market going to crash by the end of this year?  Are we on the verge of major financial chaos on a global scale? Well, this is the time of the year Read more…


“Important” – Get Out of Stocks, Says Richard Russell (GLD, SLV, TZA, SDS, SH, INDEXSP:.INX)

May 29th, 2012

Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul: Octogenarian and 53-year financial markets veteran from Loyola, California, Richard Russell, announced it’s time to get out of stocks—pronto!  The market expects a Greek exit of the EMU and further trouble from the other PIIGS, according to him. Read more…


Market Meltdown Nears; Fed Soon May Be Forced To Announce QE3 (TZA, GLD, SLV, SDS, INDEXSP:.INX)

May 14th, 2012

Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul:  The financial indicator that traders have watched most for a sign of another Lehman-like swan dive in stocks has suddenly inched to the edge of the abyss in overnight trading. Read more…


Markets: Why The Next Major Selling Wave Is About To Begin (GLD, SLV, VXX, TZA, SDS, FAZ)

September 21st, 2011

Toby Connor: As many of you already know I expected the dollar index to put in a major three year cycle low sometime this year. The normal timing band would have been for a bottom in the spring.  The recent breakout Read more…


Investors Turn To Inverse ETFs As All Eyes Are On Fridays Jobs Reports

February 4th, 2010

eyebrowsAll eyes now turn to Friday’s Non Farm Payrolls report after today’s news created a virtual stalemate between the bulls and the bears Read more…


The Economic Data Is Better, But The Bears Are Patiently Waiting On The Sidelines!

May 8th, 2009

bear-sittingFirst, April was not nearly as good as the bulls made it to be. Yes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) surged 5.5% during the first half of the month. But, in the second half, momentum slowed with the average rising just 1.7%.

Even then, the statistics don’t tell the whole story. From the Apr 16 close to the Apr 30 close, the Dow gained a mere 43 points, or 0.5%.

That’s a big difference in return for someone who bought the Dow Diamonds ETF (DIA) on Apr 16 instead of just a couple of weeks earlier. (DIA is an ETF that tracks the performance of the Dow.)

Secondly, volume is not signaling a lot of conviction on the part of buyers. Throughout March, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) experienced average volume of 400 million shares per day. In April, daily volume declined to 287 million shares.

Yet, during this entire time, stocks have risen. And the higher they go, the more the rally is losing steam. That’s not good.

Thirdly, I’m worried about the banks.

Yes, everyone passed the stress test, but it was a questionable test to begin with. Plus, Bank of America (BAC) and 9 others have lots of time to raise funds. But, foreclosures are still rising, credit card defaults will get worse and, despite all of the analysis, nobody still knows how to value the toxic assets.

The government might keep the large banks afloat, but their stock prices and earnings could still suffer. And that alone would cause problems for the stock market. Not to mention that financial stocks (and related ETFs such as Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF)) are overdue for a pullback based on technical analysis alone.

Fourthly, as earnings season comes to an end, we should see fewer positive revisions to profit forecasts. The ratio of positive to negative revisions typically falls after earnings season, even during good times. I don’t see any reason for this to change.

A drop in positive revisions would be one less catalyst for stocks to go higher.

Finally, the General Motors (GM) situation remains unresolved. If bankruptcy proceedings turn messy, it will cause a big disruption across the entire automotive industry. This, in turn, could create problems for the market.

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Bears vs. Bulls: What about the pigs?

May 1st, 2009

pigs1Fortunately today has been a healthy reprieve from the fallout. There has been little to no signs of a worsening flu pandemic. People are not dropping like teenage girls at a Beetle’s concert (or an Obama sighting). And share prices have found enough of a reason to continue their climb even after a solid week of gains from the equities market.

Wall Street appears to be undecided about next week’s action, however. About half of the crowd is calling for a fizzle, while the other half is calling for more gains based on signs the economy is improving at a faster-than-expected rate (the stimulus worked!).

The answer will come from Mexico. Watch the iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (NYSE:EWW), which has the perfect ticker considering the current flu scare, over the next few trading days. It will be a strong indication of what Wall Street thinks of Mexico’s economic chances.

If the fund lags the market, I expect the equities markets to eventually turn around and follow Mexico into the red. If the ETF is a strong leader, however, it means the fears were way overblown and the equities market as a whole is undervalued.

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