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Jeff Harding: The recent U.S. manufacturing report is at the top of a mountain of bad economic news coming out. Whether these data will lead to a “new” recession (as defined by the NBER) remains to be seen, but at the very least the U.S. economy is stagnating, Read more…
Jeff Harding: Much of what we see in recent economic growth is caused by one thing: cheap money and credit. This is obvious as we look at two important economic drivers: autos and homes. Both are significant in that they represent the two biggest purchases Read more…
Jeff Harding: The official “inflation” numbers came in last week and they show declining prices, something that the Fed calls “deflation”. The Fed and most policy makers will panic if deflation continues and prices steadily drop. It’s a tricky thing to evaluate Read more…
Jeff Harding: In the remarks below I evaluate the Federal Reserve System — and the institution of central banking more generally — from the perspective of an organizational economist. While I strongly disagree with many of the key policies Read more…
Jeff Harding: The OECD just came out with its “Interim Assessment” of the major economies within the OECD (34 countries). This article amounts to what is known on the blogosphere as “chart porn” since most of the data comes in the form of … charts. Personally I think “chartocopia” is a better term. Read more…
Jeff Harding: Economists cling to statistical data like barnacles in order to have some kind of anchor to explain what is going on in the world. They will try to cram the square data peg into the round holes of economic ”laws” rather than abandon them when they are obviously wrong. Which is not a very Read more…
Jeff Harding: A “little” inflation will destroy capital, rob you of your savings, disrupt all of your long-term financial planning, create market instability, and leave you unprepared for retirement. You can protect yourself and you must. Read more…
Jeff Harding: Every time we see oil prices go up we hear that it will cause inflation and/or the economy will go into the tank. Read more…
Jeff Harding: An article from John Mauldin was referred to me by three people who suggested it was a must read. The article was an interview of Hoisington Investment Management economist Dr. Lacy Hunt by Kate Welling, a financial journalist, formerly with Barron’s. I don’t read Read more…
Jeff Harding: There is a lot of good news to buoy the markets and give cheer to the public. We hear that new jobless claims are down another 15,000 to 358,000, the ninth week of declines out of the last ten, finally breaking below the 400,000 mark. A reduction in unemployment is a very positive sign Read more…
Jeff Harding: There is a lot of good news to buoy the markets and give cheer to the public. We hear that new jobless claims are down another 15,000 to 358,000, the ninth week of declines out of the last ten, finally breaking below the 400,000 mark. A reduction in unemployment is a very positive sign and Read more…
Jeff Harding: We need to follow Greece because their default and withdrawal from the eurozone (NYSEArca:VGK) would set off major consequences to the European Monetary Union, and thus the EU, Read more…
Jeff Harding: It would not surprise anyone that home prices are still falling, perhaps less, but they are still declining. The Case Shiller report for November 30, 2011 showed: Read more…
Jeff Harding: I am very critical of Bill Gross of PIMCO and have named him of one our Crony Capitalists of the Month because of his insistence that the Fed bail out his industry. Mr. Gross, as we all know, has been very successful in his run at PIMCO and I respect him for that. But I will say that I don’t Read more…
Jeff Harding: The Fed didn’t change any policies yesterday, but they have really bought into the “jaw, jaw, jaw” theory of monetary policy by extending the low interest rate (ZIRP) policy out to late 2014 from their former mid-2013 target. That is, they believe if the markets rely on the Fed’s word to keep Read more…
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