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Sam Kirtley: Seasonality is observable in a wide variety of variables. In business, sales, production, inventory, man hours and the best time to discount can be at least partially predicted by seasonal effects. Gold is no different. In different months price swings occur somewhat predictably year after year. What Read more…
Sam Kirtley: As our regular readers will know, we view US real interest rates as the key determinant of gold prices over the medium term. Six weeks ago we updated the situation with U.S. real rates (discussion of the theory behind the relationship can be found in that article) and since then, we have Read more…
NYSE:DGP, NYSE:GDX, NYSE:GDXJ, NYSE:GLD, NYSE:GLL, NYSE:IAU, NYSE:SGOL
Sam Kirtley: In this article, we look to analyse the relationship between gold and the U.S. bond yield curve. The yield curve is an immensely useful economic indicator and hence can be used as one of Read more…
NYSE:DGP, NYSE:DZZ, NYSE:GDX, NYSE:GDXJ, NYSE:GLD, NYSE:GLL, NYSE:IAU
Sam Kirtley: In August 2010 we wrote an article entitled “Proposing An Overnight Gold Fund” in which we explored the potential for launching a fund that held long positions in gold overnight and was short gold during the day. We pointed out that “a hedge fund starting in 2001 with $100m, with the Read more…
Sam Kirtley: Pair trading is a trading strategy based on the concepts of statistical arbitrage and convergence. Typically it involves being long one security and short another. For example one may believe that Apple would outperform Microsoft, so one buys Apple and shorts Microsoft. A pair trade may also Read more…
NYSE:DGP, NYSE:GDX, NYSE:GDXJ, NYSE:GLD, NYSE:IAU, NYSE:SLV, NYSE:TIP
Sam Kirtley: At SK Options Trading, we primarily use the SPDR gold trust (NYSEARCA:GLD) for exposure to the gold price. GLD is an exchange traded fund, designed to track the price of one tenth of an ounce of gold. GLD currently holds around 1280 tonnes of physical bullion, the sixth largest holding Read more…
Sam Kirtley: In this article we examine the current and past relationship between gold and the S&P 500 index and whether or not gold still remains a “safe haven”. In the past gold has often had a low positive Read more…
Sam Kirtley: In this article we investigate the 2011 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) silver margin requirement increases and what effect they have had. Margins necessarily need to rise and fall, to ensure there is minimal default risk in the market, but the system the CME utilizes to achieve this has a lot Read more…
Sam Kirtley: In this article we aim to explain the relationship between the movements in the price of gold and movements in gold stocks. The financial tool that measures this relationship is the asset’s “Beta”. Beta is a measure of risk and compares the historical return of asset X with the return on the Read more…
Sam Kirtley: Whilst many may argue that gold is an inflation hedge and therefore inflation is bullish for gold, in reality the dynamics at play here are not that simple. Read more…
Sam Kirtley: Gold has traded in a choppy lateral motion recently, with prices sliding south over the past week or so. The market looks hesitant ahead of the FOMC meeting this week, with traders cautious not to take on too much prior to what could be a game changing announcement. Bears are cautious about getting too short in case Bernanke Read more…
Sam Kirtley: Given that gold has hit our target of $1800 we feel it is appropriate to review our outlook on the gold market, the state of key factors that influence gold prices and possible trading strategies going forward. Read more…
Sam Kirtley: In 1924 John Maynard Keynes referred to the gold standard as a “barbarous relic”, but we think the new barbarous relic is using gold stocks as a trading or investment vehicle in an attempt to benefit from rising gold prices. This isn’t the 1970s. One can buy GLD call options from Read more…
Sam Kirtley: Despite some calling for an explosive summer rally in gold, prices fell again this week on the back of easing concerns over Greek sovereign debt as the Greek parliament successfully passed the austerity legislation required to access additional bailout funds. This was due to the Read more…
Sam Kirtley: Recently gold challenged it’s all time highs, being propelled largely by renewed concerns over the Greek debt crisis and the possible ramifications a default could have on global financial markets. Whilst fears of a possible default in Greece are supportive of gold prices in the Read more…
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