The Conflicting Dow Theories: Jack Schannep, Richard Moroney, and Richard Russell

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June 16, 2010 2:26pm ETF BASIC NEWS

It seems that in the world of Dow Theorists there is a dislocation in the interpretation of “significant.” “Jack Schannep, editor of, and Richard Moroney, editor of Dow Theory Forecasts, argued that the market’s rally off its May 7 lows was too short to count as “significant” — it lasted

 just three trading sessions, in fact. On their interpretation, therefore, the market throughout May was stuck in the correction that constitutes Step #1 — two steps shy of a sell signal.” Writes Mark Hulbert , MarketWatch 

“What about this month’s rally, which began on June 7? After Tuesday’s impressive triple-digit increase, that rally has now lasted six trading sessions and tacked 6.0% onto the Dow Industrials and 10.6% onto the Dow Transports.” Writes Mark Hulbert , MarketWatch

“Schannep, for one, thinks that’s enough to be “significant.” On his interpretation, that therefore starts the clock ticking: If both averages now proceed to close above their highs of six weeks ago, then the bull market will receive another lease on life. But if they fail to surpass those highs and then close below their June 7 lows, then Schannep (and perhaps Moroney) would join Richard Russell in declaring a primary bear market to be in force.” Writes Mark Hulbert , MarketWatch

Richard Russell has been very bearish as of late. Currently, Russell believes we are in the “dead zone.” The following are Russell’s latest comments on the market.  “We’re in the area that I call the “dead zone.” I’ve been here before, and it’s not easy to write in the dead zone. The dead zone tends to appear after a period of dramatic and clearly-defined action. After such periods the market will often act like an exhausted prize fighter who has been knocked down to the canvas. He gets to his feet, but he is unsteady on his feet, and he’s playing for time — until his head clears. He’s fending off the other fighter as best he can, and he’s depending on his experience. Will he make it to the end of the round? But what kind of shape is he in for the next round?

To be more specific, the last significant low for the Dow was recorded on June 7 at 9816, Transports 4038. I want to watch these two points for indications of further strength or weakness.

The Lowry’s figures are important at this juncture. Their Selling Pressure Index at 707 is 462 points above their Buying Power Index which stands at 245. Thus Selling Pressure is in the dominant position, which suggests that the market should work sharply lower at the drop of a dime.”

You can find Mark Hulbert’s full story: HERE

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