These Two Gold Ratios Could Determine Where Prices Are Headed This Year

Share This Article
January 26, 2017 10:49am NYSE:GLD

gold-1575220-640x480

From Jordan Roy-Byrne: As Gold and gold mining stocks approach strong resistance, we wonder if the outcome will be a sharp selloff or a period of bullish consolidation. While there are a handful of things we can examine (sentiment, momentum, relative strength, etc), today we will focus on Gold and its relative strength against two key markets.


How Gold fares against Bonds and foreign currencies in the weeks ahead could be a hint of its trend heading into spring.

Below we plot Gold against Bonds and Gold against Foreign Currencies (FC). Gold against the 30-year bond is shown with the 200 and 400-day moving averages while Gold against FC and the 400-day moving average is plotted at the bottom.

As we can see, the Gold/Bonds ratio is attempting to breakout from two-year resistance. The ratio has consolidated for the past nine months and now the moving averages are aligned in bullish fashion. Meanwhile, Gold/FC is trading above support but like Gold itself faces resistance from early autumn.

Jan252016GoldvsFCBonds

Gold vs. Bonds, Gold vs. Foreign Currencies

 

Gold has been lagging the miners recently and that is a good thing. The miners should lead. However, as Gold nears resistance (potentially at $1250/oz) it is important for it to show relative strength against the other asset classes and in particular Bonds and FC. A breakout in the Gold/Bonds ratio would signal that Gold would be less affected by weakness in Bonds (and rising yields). Meanwhile, continued strength for Gold/FC would signal that Gold would be less impacted by a rising US Dollar.

When focusing on the very short-term we see that Gold has been turned back at $1220/oz while the miners have continued to grind higher. They opened lower Wednesday but managed to close at the highs of the day. Their rebound is getting long in the tooth but there is a chance they could grind higher towards the red lines.

Jan252016minersgoldd

GDX, GDXJ, Gold Daily Bar Charts

 

As Gold and gold mining stocks approach resistance we will keep an eye on their performance relative to the movements in other asset classes. A pullback from resistance is very likely but the question is if the pullback evolves into a deeper correction or a bullish consolidation. In the meantime we have focused on buying quality and value in the junior space while maintaining some cash. The good buying opportunity we noted a month ago has passed but another one will come soon one way or another.

The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE:GLD) was trading at $113.20 per share on Thursday morning, down $1.12 (-0.98%). Year-to-date, GLD has gained 3.28%, versus a 2.63% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.

GLD currently has an ETF Daily News SMART Grade of B (Buy), and is ranked #1 of 32 ETFs in the Precious Metals ETFs category.


This article is brought to you courtesy of The Daily Gold.


Read Next


Get Free Updates

Join over 50,000 investors who get the latest news from ETFDailyNews.com!

Most Popular


From Our Partners


Explore More from ETFDailyNews.com

Free Daily Newsletter

Get daily ETF insights from our market experts. Never miss another important market development again!

ETFDailyNews.com respects your privacy.

Best ETFs

We've rated and ranked nearly 2,000 ETFs and ETNs using our proprietary SMART Grade system.

View Top Rated ETFs

Best Categories

We've ranked dozens of ETF categories based on relative performance.

Best ETF Categories