Interest Rates Facing Biggest Test In 25 Years

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July 11, 2018 6:01am NYSE:IEF

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From Chris Kimble: This chart looks at the Yield on the 10-year note (TNX) over the past 25-years. Yields have spent the majority of the past couple of decades inside of falling channel (1).


Yields have been pushing higher since the lows in 2016 where they have created higher lows above the rising support line (2). The rally saw yields edge a small percent above falling channel (1) a few weeks ago. Did a breakout take place? Was it a breakout or a fakeout/small throw over? Yields are now testing channel (1) as potential support at (3). Channel (1) has not come into play as a support test for the past 25-years. This is a rare test for yields, as it is testing three different support lines at the same time.

What yields do at (3), should have a big impact on bonds, commodities, and banks going forward. Keep a close eye on yields here friends because it could have a large impact on portfolio construction going forward!


The iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Trasry Bnd Fd (IEF) was unchanged in premarket trading Wednesday. Year-to-date, IEF has declined -2.47%, versus a 4.93% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.

IEF currently has an ETF Daily News SMART Grade of B (Buy), and is ranked #10 of 28 ETFs in the Government Bonds ETFs category.


This article is brought to you courtesy of Kimble Charting Solutions.


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