Lack Of Volatility Remains A Bullish Signal For S&P 500 (SPY)

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August 4, 2018 7:05am NYSE:SPY

From Larry McMillan: While the $SPX chart remains bullish, in that it is in an upward-sloping channel, there are some troubling signs beginning to appear, including a verified “modified Bollinger Band®” sell signal.

The $SPX chart itself has seen support at the 2800 level, or just below, on recent pullbacks. Below that there is major supoport at 2740.

The equity-only put-call ratios remain split in their outlook. The weighted ratio gave a buy signal a couple of weeks ago and remains on that buy signal. The standard ratio, however, is struggling to roll over to a “buy” and has not yet given a confirmed buy signal.

Market breadth has been rather lackluster. So, both breadth oscillators remain on sell signals. Again, this has not produced a large market decline, but it is another sign of trouble.

Volatility is much more positive, as far as stocks go. $VIX has remained below 15, and thus it is a bullish mode. As long as $VIX is trending lower or sideways, stocks can rally.

In summary, a good number of the indicators remain bullish, and that keeps the intermediate-term outlook bullish. However, the mBB sell signal and the persistence of lackluster breadth are indications that not all is well.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) closed at $283.60 on Friday, up $1.21 (+0.43%). Year-to-date, SPY has gained 6.70%.

SPY currently has an ETF Daily News SMART Grade of A (Strong Buy), and is ranked #1 of 149 ETFs in the Large Cap Blend ETFs category.

This article is brought to you courtesy of McMillan Analysis Corp..

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