Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes have hit two-month highs this week and are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite in the marketplace this week remains generally upbeat, which is a negative for the safe-haven gold and silver markets.
Gains in Asian shares were limited today by downbeat economic data coming out of China. Its producer price index for January came in at up 0.1%, which was well down from the December gain of 0.9% and suggests slowing economic growth. Meantime, China’s consumer price index for January was reported up 1.7%–down from up 1.9% in December, year-on-year. The China inflation data continues a theme of low price inflation in the major world economies.
The U.S.-China trade talks taking place in Beijing this week have concluded, with people involved in the talks saying enough progress was made to construct a framework on the path to an agreement, and to be later added to when U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet at a later date. The White House released a statement Friday morning that said hard discussions took place, but that progress was made. The two sides will continue negotiations next week in Washington. While there are still big obstacles to overcome on the matter, the marketplace is reading the discussions as making notable progress, which has in part helped to rally world stock markets this week.
The marketplace has also been assuaged this week by Trump agreeing to a U.S. budget compromise between the Democrats and Republicans, despite the agreement not having as much money appropriated for a border wall with Mexico. Trump now says he’s going to declare a national emergency to get the funding for a border wall with Mexico.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer and very near its 2018 high scored in December. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading around $54.50 a barrel. The oil market bulls are having a good week, but stiff chart resistance is located at and just above $55.00 a barrel.
U.S. economic reports due for release Friday include import and export prices, the Empire State manufacturing survey, industrial production and capacity utilization, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, and Treasury international capital data.
Technically, the April gold bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained some momentum late this week. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in April futures above solid resistance at the January high of $1,331.10. Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at $1,325.00 and then at $1,331.10. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,314.30 and then at this week’s low of $1,304.70. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.5
March silver futures bulls have the near-term technical advantage. A 2.5-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of $16.20 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $15.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $15.69 and then at this week’s high of $15.83. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $15.445 and then at $15.30. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0.
The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) was trading at $124.34 per share on Friday afternoon, up $0.28 (+0.23%). Year-to-date, GLD has gained 0.56%, versus a 4.03% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.
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