The debate is pretty much over whether the Fed will reduce. The expectation is they WILL reduce rates, the question is by how much? If they really think they need to goose the economy – oops, I mean if they think inflation is too low or the trade war has hurt the economy, or whatever the excuse is – they may reduce rates by 50 basis points. Otherwise, expect a rate reduction of 25 points, or 0.25 percent.
This may have a short-term downward effect on gold, but history shows that gold rises in periods of low-interest rates. President Trump weighed in this morning on what he’d like but Fed Chair Jerome Powell doesn’t always follow along.
Your Gold Enthusiast thinks the market has already priced in a 1/4-point reduction, and a 1/2-point change might get a big reaction in the markets. Some analysts are already publishing what they think will happen as well.
If you think about it, the economy is firing on all cylinders, the markets just hit all-time highs, and trade war talks continue. So it would seem early to cut interest rates, which would mostly just goose the financial sector and possibly housing anyway, not immediately put money in regular people’s pockets. But it’s the tool they have – echoing the old line about “if your only tool is a hammer”.
Over the weekend a Chinese official from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) outlined China’s reasons for recent increases in central gold buying. His short list consisted of purely economic reasons, such as ensuring a good basis for the increased size of the Chinese economy, and a good rate of return on foreign assets held – 3.68% from 2005-2014. Not too shabby for such a pool.
He also indicated China may step up it’s rate of gold purchases for the rest of 2019, and that China’s central bank may surpass Russia’s in the amount of gold purchased in 2019. If so, that would put a good demand floor under gold for the remainder of 2019, and all gold prices would need would be small geopolitical shocks to keep pushing upward.
Don’t celebrate yet gold bulls – but it might be time to stock up on party supplies.
The Gold Enthusiast
The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) was trading at $133.94 per share on Monday morning, up $0.30 (+0.22%). Year-to-date, GLD has gained 8.32%, versus a 13.34% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.
This article is brought to you courtesy of ETF Daily News.
About the Author: Mike Hammer
For 30-plus years, Mike Hammer has been an ardent follower, and often-times trader, of gold and silver. With his own money, he began trading in ‘86 and has seen the market at its highest highs and lowest lows, which includes the Black Monday Crash in ‘87, the Crash of ‘08, and the Flash Crash of 2010. Throughout all of this, he’s been on the great side of winning, and sometimes, the hard side of losing. For the past eight years, he’s mentored others about the fine art of trading stocks and ETFs at the Adam Mesh Trading Group.