Roth Capital Has Strong Forecast for Progressive Q4 Earnings

The Progressive Co. (NYSE:PGR) – Stock analysts at Roth Capital lifted their Q4 2025 EPS estimates for shares of Progressive in a research note issued to investors on Tuesday, February 25th. Roth Capital analyst H. Fong now forecasts that the insurance provider will post earnings of $3.77 per share for the quarter, up from their previous forecast of $3.75. The consensus estimate for Progressive’s current full-year earnings is $14.68 per share. Roth Capital also issued estimates for Progressive’s Q1 2026 earnings at $3.60 EPS, Q2 2026 earnings at $3.55 EPS, Q3 2026 earnings at $3.72 EPS, Q4 2026 earnings at $3.84 EPS and FY2026 earnings at $14.70 EPS.

Progressive (NYSE:PGR) last released its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, January 29th. The insurance provider reported $4.08 EPS for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $3.44 by $0.64. Progressive had a net margin of 11.25% and a return on equity of 33.79%.

PGR has been the topic of a number of other research reports. Hsbc Global Res cut Progressive from a “strong-buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Tuesday, December 10th. Bank of America raised their price objective on shares of Progressive from $331.00 to $335.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a research report on Monday, November 18th. Roth Mkm boosted their target price on shares of Progressive from $290.00 to $315.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a report on Tuesday. TD Cowen raised their price target on shares of Progressive from $197.00 to $237.00 and gave the stock a “hold” rating in a report on Friday, November 8th. Finally, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods decreased their price objective on Progressive from $295.00 to $294.00 and set an “outperform” rating on the stock in a report on Friday, January 10th. Six analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and thirteen have issued a buy rating to the company. According to MarketBeat, the stock has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average price target of $277.59.

Progressive Price Performance

PGR stock opened at $279.02 on Wednesday. Progressive has a 1 year low of $186.94 and a 1 year high of $280.25. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.27, a current ratio of 0.31 and a quick ratio of 0.30. The firm has a market capitalization of $163.45 billion, a PE ratio of 19.38, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.70 and a beta of 0.42. The business has a 50 day simple moving average of $249.41 and a 200-day simple moving average of $250.50.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Progressive

Several hedge funds have recently bought and sold shares of PGR. Norges Bank acquired a new position in shares of Progressive in the fourth quarter worth $1,843,045,000. GQG Partners LLC increased its position in Progressive by 67.6% during the 4th quarter. GQG Partners LLC now owns 5,171,501 shares of the insurance provider’s stock worth $1,239,143,000 after purchasing an additional 2,085,833 shares in the last quarter. Raymond James Financial Inc. acquired a new position in Progressive in the 4th quarter valued at about $408,416,000. Geode Capital Management LLC lifted its holdings in Progressive by 13.2% in the 3rd quarter. Geode Capital Management LLC now owns 14,425,792 shares of the insurance provider’s stock valued at $3,652,235,000 after purchasing an additional 1,682,213 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Capital Research Global Investors boosted its stake in shares of Progressive by 34.3% during the 4th quarter. Capital Research Global Investors now owns 6,058,187 shares of the insurance provider’s stock worth $1,451,602,000 after purchasing an additional 1,547,677 shares during the last quarter. 85.34% of the stock is owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

Insiders Place Their Bets

In related news, CAO Mariann Wojtkun Marshall sold 191 shares of the company’s stock in a transaction on Friday, January 3rd. The shares were sold at an average price of $242.10, for a total value of $46,241.10. Following the completion of the sale, the chief accounting officer now owns 3,982 shares in the company, valued at $964,042.20. This represents a 4.58 % decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available through the SEC website. Also, insider Andrew J. Quigg sold 681 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Friday, January 3rd. The stock was sold at an average price of $242.10, for a total transaction of $164,870.10. Following the transaction, the insider now directly owns 33,612 shares in the company, valued at $8,137,465.20. The trade was a 1.99 % decrease in their ownership of the stock. The disclosure for this sale can be found here. Over the last 90 days, insiders have sold 46,361 shares of company stock valued at $11,302,675. 0.34% of the stock is currently owned by insiders.

Progressive Announces Dividend

The business also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Thursday, January 16th. Shareholders of record on Thursday, January 9th were paid a $0.10 dividend. The ex-dividend date was Friday, January 10th. This represents a $0.40 annualized dividend and a yield of 0.14%. Progressive’s dividend payout ratio is presently 2.78%.

About Progressive

The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, business related general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property.