Tech-heavy SPDR Portfolio 500 Growth ETF (SPYG) sees record monthly inflows

2019 Stocks increase
From Sarah Ponczek and Vildana Hajric: The best quarter for U.S. stocks in a decade has come to a close, but signs are emerging that appetite for risk may have room to grow.
NYSE:SPY April 1, 2019 1:15pm

As the S&P 500 rises, where is the next resistance level?

s&p 500
From Michael Ashbaugh: U.S. stocks are firmly higher early Monday, rising to start the second quarter after a strong batch of global economic data.
NYSE:SPY

Dow Jones Industrial Average jumps 250 points on strong China economic data

us-china investing
From Fred Imbert: Stocks jumped on Monday as strong manufacturing data out of the U.S. and China eased worries of a possible global economic slowdown.
INDEXDJX:.DJI

The Stock Market Has Its Best Quarter Since 2009

increase demand green
From Sam Bourgi: By CCN: The Dow and broader U.S. stock market rallied on Friday, capping off the best quarter since the financial crisis and reaffirming that the bull market has yet to run its course.
INDEXDJX:.DJI March 29, 2019 4:48pm

The S&P 500 gained 12% in just the past 3 months, will it continue?

From Patti Domm: The first quarter is on track to be the best in nearly 10 years, and the best start to the year for the S&P 500 since 1998. While it's not likely to repeat those gains, analysts say the second quarter could be good for stocks even with some bumps.
NYSE:SPY March 28, 2019 5:46pm

Dow Jones Industrial Average trades rallies on report that U.S. economy grew 2.9% in 2018

2019 Stocks increase
From Sunny Oh: Stocks were slightly higher Thursday after an update of fourth-quarter gross domestic product showed the U.S. economy had expanded at a 2.9% pace for the full year of 2018. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.06% was up 0.3% to around 2,813. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.04% picked up 108 points, or 0.4%, to 25,725. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.01% rose 0.2% to 7,659. U.S. gross domestic product grew 2.2% in the last three months of 2018, down from a previous estimate of 2.6%. Still, that left the economy expanding at a 2.9% rate in 2018, the strongest since 2015. In company news, Lyft Inc. LYFT, +0.00% is set to price later on Thursday, ahead of the ride-hailing firm's planned initial public offering on Friday.
INDEXDJX:.DJI

Dow falls 150 points as yields dip amid economic fears

dow jones
From Fred Imbert: Stocks fell on Wednesday, tracking bond yields, as worries over a possible economic slowdown lingered.
INDEXDJX:.DJI March 27, 2019 3:35pm

S&P 500 is on track to have its best quarter since 2009

s&p 500
From Pippa Stevens: The S&P 500 is on track for its best quarter in a decade, up roughly 12 percent. And if history is any indication, the index could be set for more gains for the rest of the year.
NYSE:SPY

Why the S&P 500 needs to hold the 2,800 level

stock ticker board
From Barbara Kollmeyer: Have we seen the worst of the great yield-inversion crisis of 2019?
NYSE:SPY March 26, 2019 2:04pm

3 big threats for the S&P 500 going forward

s&p 500
From Mark Kolakowski The S&P 500 Index (SPX) tumbled by 1.9% on Friday, March 22, for its biggest one-day percentage loss since Jan. 3.
On the previous day, the widely-followed market barometer registered its highest close since Oct. 9, 2018. Rather than a temporary bout of profit taking, this may represent the beginning of a longer-lasting reversal for stocks, in the opinion of several veteran market strategists.
"The Fed can't be dovish enough to support U.S. equity markets given the acceleration in the global growth slowdown and eventual U.S. slowdown," as Peter Cecchini, global chief market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald, opined in a recent note to clients quoted by Business Insider. Meanwhile, massive outflows from equity mutual funds indicate that there is "simply no love for stocks," said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in a report also cited by BI.
Three big threats for stocks going forward are summarized in the table below. The S&P 500 was down fractionally on Monday, by just under 0.1%.
3 Threats That May Spur More Stock Declines
  • Net $20.7 billion redeemed from equity funds in the week ending March 21
  • Inverted yield curve in the U.S.
  • Yields on 10-year government bonds in Germany are now negative
Source: Business Insider

Significance For Investors

An inverted yield curve, in which short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates, is historically a reliable predictor of an upcoming economic recession. In turn, the onset of a recession, or the anticipation of one, often triggers a bear market in stocks. On Friday, March 22, the U.S. yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007, which was the year in which the last U.S. recession and the last U.S. bear market began.
Leading fund managers across the globe surveyed by Bank of American Merrill Lynch now have their lowest allocation to stocks since Sept. 2016. Moreover, the net weekly outflow of $20.7 billion from equity funds happened before the March 22 plunge in the S&P 500. Whether this has spurred yet more withdrawals will be known when the next report by BofAML is released later this week.
As the largest economy in Europe, Germany is an important bellwether for the developed world. The yields on 10-year German government bonds turned negative for the first time since Oct. 2016, partly the result of declining exports to China, which is in the midst of its own economic slowdown. The impact is likely to extend to the U.S., as investors flee German bonds for U.S. Treasury securities, pushing their prices up and yields down, BI observes.

Looking Ahead

Despite these and other bearish developments, some market participants remain bullish. "We're very comfortable that the back three quarters of the year are going to show improvement over the first quarter," is the opinion of Philip Orlando, chief equity strategist at Federated Investors, in remarks on CNBC.
"I don't think we're going to retest the Christmas Eve bottoms," he asserted, adding, "We would use any weakness as a buying opportunity." He prefers large cap U.S. value stocks, as well as U.S. small cap stocks, and has a price target of 3,100 on the S&P 500, 10.8% above the March 25 close. His worst-case scenario is that the index slips to 2,600, or 7.1% below the March 25 close, if earnings are poor and corporate guidance is pessimistic.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was trading at $280.74 per share on Tuesday afternoon, up $1.70 (+0.61%). Year-to-date, SPY has gained 5.62%. SPY currently has an ETF Daily News SMART Grade of A (Strong Buy), and is ranked #1 of 154 ETFs in the Large Cap Blend ETFs category.
This article is brought to you courtesy of Investopedia.
NYSE:SPY

Analyst says that the S&P 500 could fall 40%, as yield curve inverts

economic chart
From Sunny Oh: An inversion of this spread -- the most closely watched by economists -- has preceded every recession since 1960, though the timing between the two events can vary, according to the New York Fed. Bond prices move inversely to yields.
NYSE:SPY March 22, 2019 9:07pm

S&P 500 heads for its worst day since January

s&p 500
From Fred Imbert: Stocks dropped on Friday as investors worried global economic growth could slow down following the Federal Reserve's cautious outlook from earlier in the week.
NYSE:SPY

Could the Mueller report could hurt the stock market?

donald trump speaking
From Chris Matthews: two years of the Trump administration, but equity strategists and analysts say markets may soon have to deal with its ramifications, as Special Counsel Robert Mueller reportedly nears the end of his investigation into possible ties between the Trump campaign and Russia's meddling in the 2016 election.
NYSE:SPY March 21, 2019 6:14pm

Dow Jones Industrial Average jumps 200 points

tech stocks
From Fred Imbert: Stocks rose on Thursday as Apple and Micron surged to lead the tech sector higher.
INDEXDJX:.DJI

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