Despite this, a ray of light may shine on sectors driven by consumer spending enabling the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE:XLY), the Vanguard Consumer Discretionary (NYSE:VCR), the PowerShares Dynamic Consumer Discretionary (NYSE:PEZ) and the Retail HOLDRs (NYSE:RTH) to reap the benefits.
According to the Commerce Department, consumer spending, this accounts for nearly 70 percent of US GDP, increased by 2.4 percent annually during the third quarter of this year. Furthermore, retail sales rose in each of the three months in the third quarter with a further detail indicating that this rise is broad based.
As for the next few months, the National Retail Federation expects the upcoming holiday season to be the best one in the past four years with sales increasing by 2.3 percent from a year ago. With this in mind, retailers like Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), Target (NYSE:TGT) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) are likely to witness increased sales from the previous year.
The recent increases in consumer spending and the expected holiday season increases are likely being driven by the fact that some consumers believe that the economic recovery in the US is intact and the labor markets can’t get much weaker than they currently are. Additionally, it appears that some consumers who pushed essential purchases back during the height of the Great Recession are finally starting to loosen their grip on their wallets.
Although it appears that the aforementioned ETFs have already absorbed the blows dealt with consumers reluctant to spend, a weak labor force and weak consumer sentiment, it is equally important to consider the forces that could hinder them. Some of these forces include deflation, inflation, and a stubbornly weak real estate sector which could take a further blow due to enhanced foreclosures hitting the market.
A good way to protect against these forces is through the use of an exit strategy which identifies specific price points at which downward price pressure could prevail. Such a strategy can be found at http://www.smartstops.net/.
- Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE:XLY), which holds 81 different stocks that are driven by consumer spending. Top holdings include fast food giant McDonald’s Corp (NYSE:MCD), Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) and Amazon.
- Vanguard Consumer Discretionary (NYSE:VCR), which is the most diverse ETF of its kind with 378 holdings. VCR includes Amazon and Target in its top holdings
- PowerShares Dynamic Consumer Discretionary (NYSE:PEZ), which is a mid-cap blend of 60 holdings. PEZ top holding is luxury retailer Coach (NYSE:COH).
- Retail HOLDRs (NYSE:RTH), which is heavily concentrated on discount retailers. RTH allocates 19.48 % of its assets to Wal-Mart, 10.93% to Amazon and 8.68% to Target.
Written By Kevin Grewal From ETF Tutor Disclosure: No Positions
Kevin Grewal is the founder, editor and publisher of ETF Tutor and serves as the editor at www.SmartStops.net, where he focuses on mitigating risk and implementing exit strategies to preserve equity. Additionally, he is the editor at The ETF Institute, which is the only independent organization providing financial professionals with certification, education, and training pertaining to exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Prior to this, Grewal was a quantitative analyst at a small hedge fund where he constructed portfolios dealing with stock lending, exchange-traded funds, arbitrage mechanisms and alternative investments. He is an expert at dealing with ETFs and holds a bachelor’s degree from the University of California along with a MBA from the California State University, Fullerton. He is a contributing author on The Street – his articles can also be found published on various sites including Yahoo! Finance, The Globe and Mail , Daily Markets, MSN Money, Seeking Alpha, Fidelity Investments, Traders Library, and Minyanville.