4 Housing Recovery Investment Trends

housing-etpDodd Kittsley: With all the recent good news in the housing market, we thought it would be a good time to look at exchange traded product (ETP) flow data in this sector to see what trends are emerging among investors.  There are various ways to invest in the housing recovery, each with a different exposure and risk profile. We’ve seen notable inflows into US-listed ETPs that give access to mortgage bonds, home builders, equity REITs and mortgage REITs.

  1. Mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Starting on the fixed income side of things, MBS are bonds that get their cash flow from loans on homes.  Because they’re bonds, they fall on the lower side of the risk spectrum, buffered by the fact that US government agencies like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae guarantee the timely payment of principal and interest.  They are, however, subject to prepayment risk, and movements in interest rates may quickly and significantly reduce the value of certain mortgage-backed securities.  While MBS ETPs actually experienced small outflows in Q1 2013 (-$97.6mn), their assets have been steadily rising over the past two years – in 2012 alone they grew 62% in assets with inflows of $2.6bn.
  2. Home builders. This sector contains the common stock of companies that develop residential and commercial real estate, such as DR Horton and Toll Brothers.  It can also include home improvement suppliers such as Lowe’s and Home Depot.  We’ve seen a lot of investor interest in this category of late – Q1 inflows of $927mn are already more than half what the sector pulled in last year which totaled $1.6bn.  But word to the wise: Russ K actually thinks home builder stocks are experiencing a bubbleright now.
  3. Equity REITs. This has been far and away the most popular way to play the recovery, according to ETP flows. And in an environment of persistently low interest rates, it’s no surprise investors are showing interest in a category that has the potential to add yield to a portfolio. Equity REITs own and operate income-producing properties, passing along 90% of annual income to shareholders.  There are several different types of equity REITS, including residential, industrial and retail, among others.  Equity REIT ETPs have significantly more assets than the other categories listed here (assets at $31bn as of Q1 2013), and have also seen notable inflows in the first quarter (inflows of $2.7bn – almost half of the $6.1bn in inflows they attracted last year).
  4. Mortgage REITs. Last but not least, we have the smallest ETP category on this list.  Mortgage REITs lend money to real estate owners or buy mortgage-backed securities.  Like equity REITs, they must pass 90% of their income to shareholders.  While the assets in Mortgage REIT ETPs are small with $1.3bn as of Q1 2013, we noticed an uptick in flows to the tune of $179mn this quarter.

As always, it’s important to look at the risk and return profile of your chosen investments.  This post has a great description of the risk spectrum of these products.  But no matter how you choose to play the recovery, ETPs can be a great way to get the precise exposure you’re looking for.

Dodd Kittsley, CFA, is the Head of Global ETP Market Trends Research for BlackRock and a regulator contributor to the iShares Blog. You can find more of his posts here.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *