Anticipating June Employment Data: 172K New Nonfarm Private Jobs

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July 7, 2016 4:08pm NYSE:DIA NYSE:SPY

jobsDoug Short:  The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository).


The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository). Today we have the June estimate of 172K new nonfarm private employment jobs from ADP, an increase from May’s 168K, which was a downward revision from 173K.

The 172K estimate came in above the Investing.com forecast of 159K for the ADP number.

The Investing.com forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is for 175K nonfarm new jobs (the actual PAYEMS number).

Here is an excerpt from today’s ADP report:

“Since the start of 2016, average monthly job creation has slightly dropped,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and head of the ADP Research Institute. “Lackluster global growth, low commodity prices, and an unfavorable exchange rate continue to weigh on U.S. companies, especially larger companies.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth revived last month from its spring slump. Job growth remains healthy except in the energy and trade-sensitive manufacturing sectors. Large multinationals are struggling a bit, and Brexit won’t help, but small- and mid-sized companies continue to add strongly to payrolls.”

Here is a visualization of the two series over the previous twelve months.

The key difference between the two series is that the BLS series is for Nonfarm Payrolls while ADP tracks private employment.

This article is brought to you courtesy of Doug Short from Advisor Perspectives.


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