Apple Inc. (AAPL): The Next Move Is Down For The Stock

apple buzzRick Pendergraft:  Consumers and investors alike have to come to expect big things from Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) and the company’s product announcement events. The company held one on Monday, and by most accounts, the results were underwhelming.

apple shares

The company announced a new phone that is actually a beefed up version of an old model. The iPhone SE was introduced, but most accounts I have read weren’t that impressed with the new phone. There was one analyst that praised Apple for introducing an entry-level phone with a price tag under $400, which is cheap by the company’s standards.

Regardless of how investors feel about the fundamental news and how they view the new/old product launch, the technical picture shows that Apple shares are likely to face two layers of resistance in the coming weeks.

On the daily chart we see a downward-sloped trend line that connects the high from last summer with the high from last fall. That trend line is hovering just above the $108 level currently, while the price of the stock is hovering in the $105-$106 range.

We also see that the 10-day RSI is in overbought territory and has been since the beginning of March. The daily stochastic readings are also in overbought territory, but they did just make a bearish crossover.

AAPL Daily Wyatt 2

The pattern in the stochastic lines is similar to the pattern we saw in October, when the lines moved into overbought territory, dipped back down and then rose again before making a bearish crossover and heading lower in early November. During this time period, the stock fell approximately 10%.

If we look at the weekly chart, we see a trend channel with the trend line from the daily chart acting as the upper rail of the channel.

We also see that the stock is facing some resistance from its 104-week moving average.

The moving average and the upper rail of the channel seem to be destined to converge in the $108 area, forming two layers of resistance for the stock to fight through.

AAPL Weekly Wyatt 2

Apple shares have struggled over the last year.

From February 2015 through July 2015, the stock was stuck between $120 and $130, but from July through the low in February 2016, the stock fell almost 30%.

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