Notice in the next chart that the euro is within a whisker of testing its 200 month moving average where it has bottomed twice in the past. Once the euro finds a major cycle bottom the dollar is going to put in a larger degree top.
In the next chart of the dollar notice that it is approaching a level where the Fed has cried uncle in the past and acted to turn the currency back down. Also on a purely cyclical basis, the bottom in May of this year just does not have the DNA markers of a true three year cycle low. I know I’m the only cycles analyst saying this, but I think the three year cycle in the dollar is stretching and we are in the process of putting in a major multi year top right now with a very stretched three year cycle low to be achieved sometime in the next one or two years.
So for now we wait and watch the energy markets as they are the key. When oil finds its intermediate and yearly cycle bottom look for the rest of the commodity markets to turn and follow it higher, and all this nonsense about now being the time to buy a gas guzzling SUV will soon be long forgotten.
This article is brought to you courtesy of Toby Connor from Gold Scents.