Stoyan Bojinov: Profit-taking pressures swept across Wall Street as savvy traders were quick to lock in gains following an impressive start to the week. Budget negotiations in Washington D.C. remain at a standstill, leading many to believe that recent optimism could soon turn sour when reality hits and automatic tax increases take a bite out of bottom line returns. Sluggish housing market data received little attention amid looming “fiscal cliff” woes; November’s housing starts figure came in at 861,000, failing to beat last month’s reading of 888,000.
All eyes will remain fixated on the homefront tomorrow as investors digest the latest U.S. GDP reading. As such, the State Street SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLD) may be in for a wild trading session if economic growth greatly deviates from expectations. Analysts are estimating that the U.S. economy will post growth of 2.9% this time around, marking a modest improvement from the previous reading of 2.7%.
This year has shaped out to be quite the frustrating roller coaster ride for gold investors; after starting off 2012 with a massive rally to $175 a share, GLD spent the next five months tanking and dragging along sideways. This ETF resumed its uptrend in August; however, its historical price pattern held up and GLD failed to summit $175 a share again. To top it off, the metal’s “safe haven” reputation hasn’t been really reliable judging by its poor performance since “fiscal cliff” woes started plaguing the market post-election [Download How To Pick The Right ETF Every Time].
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Since its most recent peak at $174.07 a share on October 4, 2012, this ETF has posted a series of lower-highs (red line) and lower-lows; this leads us to believe that further downside is a major possibility unless a fundamental catalyst can re-ignite the fire behind gold’s longer-term uptrend [see The 5 Most Important Chart Patterns For ETF Traders].
If the latest GDP report offers a positive outlook, then safe haven assets like gold may face headwinds on the day; in terms of downside, GLD has major support around the $160 level, which is dangerously close. On the flip side, a disappointing GDP report can serve as a reminder that the domestic recovery will be slow and steady at best; in terms of upside, this ETF may face profit-taking pressures as it nears $167 a share followed by the $170 level. As always, investors of all experience levels are advised to use stop-loss orders and practice disciplined profit-taking techniques.
Written By Stoyan Bojinov From ETF Database Disclosure: No Positions
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