Neena Mishra: A slew of positive economic data in the last few days has led many market participants to believe that the Fed will start tapering this month. On the other hand, some analysts still think that there are a number of factors that support the case for continuation in QE at current levels.
While no one can actually predict whether they will or they will not decide on tapering in the upcoming meeting, it appears that the market has already priced in some tapering—about $10 to $15 billion cut in the $85 billion monthly purchases. The actual timing is somewhat irrelevant now—it may start in September, December or early next year. (Read: 3 Cyclical ETFs for an Improving Economy)
In anticipation of tapering, interest rates have moved up significantly, the 10-year Treasury note yield touched 3% yesterday—the highest since July 2011 and a sharp move from 1.6% seen earlier this year. Rising rates have resulted in increasing losses for bonds.
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Considering that yields have surged too much, too soon, there is a chance that they may come down slightly before going up again and it is also likely that the next move up will not be as steep as the current one. But one thing is absolutely clear—the 30 year bull run in bonds is over. (Read: 3 Excellent ETFs for Dividend Growth)
Going by the performance of Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index, bond market is on track to deliver its worst performance this year, since 1994. It is not surprising that bond ETFs have seen massive outflows in the past few months.
Investors seeking to have some exposure to bonds could consider short-term bond funds, as the Fed has made it clear that short-term rates will continue at near-zero levels for a long time. Some of the popular ultrashort bond ETFs like Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (BSV) have seen increased inflows of late.
Many investors have invested in floating rate loans funds as these ETFs enable investors to earn a decent return, while reducing the credit risk (being secured by liens on company assets) and withstand rising interest rates without losing value (being floating rate assets).
PowerShares Senior Loan ETF (BKLN) has been one of the top asset gatherers among ETFs—with a $3.9 billion asset gain this year. The product has not disappointed its investors; it has returned 2.2% year-to-date, while yielding an attractive 4.7%.
Considering that corporate profits have been on the decline while corporate leverage is now back to pre-crisis levels, investors may like to keep an eye on their investments even though there are no apparent warning signs in the space as of now. Companies below investment grade ratings had $2 trillion of junk bonds and leveraged loans outstanding in July, and will need to refinance those at higher rates as rates rise.