How Will The Debt Ceiling Debate Affect Gold Prices? (GLD, IAU, SGOL, ABX, NEM, KGC)

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January 24, 2013 12:17pm NYSE:GLD NYSE:IAU

gold timeDiane Alter: If you’re wondering how the debt ceiling debate will affect gold prices, you need to check out a new report from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS).


Investment powerhouse Goldman believes gold prices will log impressive gains over the next three months as the debt ceiling debate takes center stage on Capitol Hill. The bank is advising investors to position portfolios ahead of upward moves in the precious metal.

“We see current prices as a good entry point to re-establish fresh longs,” Goldman analysts Damien Courvalin and Alec Phillips wrote in a Jan. 18 report.

The bank reaffirmed its three-month price target for gold of $1,825 an ounce. (Gold was trading at $1,695.20 in New York Tuesday.)

“The uncertainty associated with these (debt-ceiling) issues, combined with our economists’ forecast for weak U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2013 following the negative impact of higher taxes, will push gold” to the three-month target, the report stated.

The Goldman strategists pointed out six instances between 1996 and 2007 when the country hit the debt ceiling and the Treasury responded by using its muscle to execute “extraordinary measures” to keep the country afloat and running.

Gold prices rallied some 10% in half of these instances in the month prior to the debt-limit increase.

The commodity enjoyed unprecedented robust momentum during the last debt standoff in 2011, which continued for several weeks amid heated negotiations. During that span, the yellow metal set a series of record highs, causing a gargantuan gold-rush frenzy not seen since prospecting days.

The bullish view on gold is shared by bullion bank ScotiaMocatta, as reflected in its January Metal Matters Monthly.

“The financial system is drowning in debt and there seems no end in sight to ongoing massive budget deficits,” the bank wrote. “Confidence in the financial system and in the fiat government paper that facilitates it will remain low.”

Nic Brown of France’s bullion bank Natixis is also bullish on gold prices and recently told Reuters, “If there was a reason for buying gold, you’ve got two good ones.” He cited February’s Chinese New Year, a celebratory time trendy for gifting gold, and the coming U.S. debt-ceiling showdown.

“We’re surprised at how low gold prices are,” Brown added.

How to Buy Gold During Debt Ceiling Debate

Market participants have a bevy of options when considering gold investments that will soar as debt ceiling debates continue. Three popular choices include:

  • Gold Bullion, Bars and Coins

For centuries, gold coins, bars and bullion have been recognized as a premier way to preserve wealth and purchasing power. Gold is revered for retaining its store of value and remains a significant safe haven in times of crisis. Bullion is real, honest money, deemed by some to be the world’s finest form of currency.

  • Gold ETFs

Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLD), iShares Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:IAU) and the ETFS Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:SGOL) provide investors easily traded investment vehicles to take advantage of gold’s movements. Many brokerage houses have cut trading costs for ETFs, making moving in and out of them cost-effective.

  • Individual Gold Stocks

“A jump in gold prices will be even better for gold miners. The reason for that is called leverage,”Money Morning Executive Editor William Patalon III wrote in his 2013 Guide to Investing in Gold.

“When gold prices jump, a gold producer sees its earnings accelerate at a faster pace than the price of the actual metal,” Patalon explained.

Three active equities in this category are Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE:ABX), Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE:NEM) and Kinross Gold Corp. (NYSE:KGC).

You can read Patalon’s full report on investing in gold here.

Money MorningWritten By Diane Alter From Money Morning

We’re in the midst of the greatest investing boom in almost 60 years. And rest assured – this boom is not about to end anytime soon. You see, the flattening of the world continues to spawn new markets worth trillions of dollars; new customers that measure in the billions; an insatiable global demand for basic resources that’s growing exponentially; and a technological revolution even in the most distant markets on the planet.And Money Morning is here to help investors profit handsomely on this seismic shift in theglobal economy. In fact, we believe this is where the only real fortunes will be made in the months and years to come.


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