That being said we now have the potential for the banks to start diverging from the general stock market. As I’ve noted in the past it’s not unusual for the banking index to diverge for several months as stocks put in their final top. So if we see the S&P breakout to new highs over the next month or two but the banks continue to lag this would be a strong indication that a final bull market top is forming.
As most of you know my thesis for this year was that stocks would put in a final bull market top sometime this year, probably in the first half of the year, and that during this process liquidity/inflation would begin to leak out of the stock market and move into the commodity markets. We saw that process begin in January as the CRB index delivered a strong initial surge and broke through its three-year downtrend line. After this initial surge is complete commodities should move down into a major yearly cycle correction in early summer followed by a much stronger move in the second half of the year. I think that midyear correction has probably begun.
As oil is the most important global commodity it tends to drive the general commodity index. So when oil begins to move down into that yearly cycle correction the rest of the commodity complex should eventually follow as they top out one by one and follow oil lower.