Doug Short: The Advance Retail Sales Report released this morning shows that sales in June rose 0.2% month-over-month, down from 0.5% in May, which was an upward revision from 0.3%. Core Retail Sales (ex Autos) rose 0.4% in June, the same as May, which was an upward revision from 0.1%. The major culprit in today’s disappointing numbers was the -0.3% for the Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers category, with new vehicle sales posting a -0.24%.
Today’s headline and core numbers were below the Investing.com forecasts, which were 0.6% for Headline and 0.5% for Core.
The two charts below are log-scale snapshots of retail sales since the early 1990s. Both include an inset to show the trend over the past several months. The one on the left illustrates the “Headline” number. On the right is the “Core” version, which excludes motor vehicles and parts (commonly referred to as “ex autos”). Click on either thumbnail for a larger version.
The year-over-year percent change provides a better idea of trends. Here is the headline series.
Here is the year-over-year version of Core Retail Sales.