Market Not Feeling Supportive

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April 6, 2009 2:53pm ETF BASIC NEWS

smileGreetings from the last day of my 30s, where, yes, everything is about me and my birthday. Nothing like a 4-handle birthday to make a guy more self absorbed than the Brawny Paper Towel man. It’s not for me to say whether that marks any sort of change from my normal view of the world.

Here’s what I’m watching, when not mulling the idea of being half-way to 80:

  • With all due respect — and remember, I said with all due respect — Mike Mayo didn’t have a whole heck of a lot to do with today’s sell-off in banks. We’ve had a one-month equity feeding frenzy which started in banks and topped with a 350-point gap into Obama Mania last week. This was a pullback waiting for an excuse. If you’ve been playing the banks of fundamentals for the last year, with endlessly changing rules and still opaque balance sheets, you’ve been walking blind without a cane, sport.
  • So, having come into today with what felt like “way too much cash” as a percentage of my portfolio, today I’ve purchased: Apple (AAPL), Wells Fargo (WFC) and as an homage to the hair-bands of my youth, my favorite exotic dancer of an equity, the SDS 2x S&P500 Inverse ETF (SDS). Lower, higher and lower, for those who like to keep track of wins and loses at home. 
  •  So, Sun (JAVA) thought it had negotiating power with IBM (IBM), eh? Sun was trading $250 in 2000, back when it was SUNW. One wonders if JAVA shares board members with Take Two (TTWO), which has never been heard from again since turning down Electronic Arts (ERTS) mid-20s bid.
  • The Apple buy was a rebuilding move in the position. As mentioned many times previously, my prevailing strategy has been “selling rips and buying dips.” This is day one of the first dip we’ve had in a month.
  • Goldman Sachs (GS), another sold-down-to-the-bone long, is pummeling me today and nearing an uptrend line. As is the case with the whole market, where 25% gains in one month don’t really offer much in the way of “support,” Goldman moving 50% since March 9 doesn’t give a lot of footholds as we go lower. If and when the Company that Rules the Earth gets to $110, I’ll start rebuilding in earnest with a stop very near below that level (105-99). Tight stops and discipline; it’s my personal survival plan, and I’ve changed it not a bit in months.
  • Speaking of which, I was ruing having any Mosaic (MOS) on my books at all this morning. Frankly, it’s not trading too poorly and, at the size I’m playing it (recall we took a short-lived ag addition off the table by selling Potash (POT) entirely last week), I’d rather add to the name at $42 – $40.
  • Until midnight, I’m considering myself to be in my mid-30s. When full-bore middle age crazy hits in 11-odd hours, I’ll slightly modify my stance and buy a flesh-colored Maybach with light green racing stripes. And a motorcycle. I’ll also start wearing a toupee and taking more HgH than Sly Stallone. Beyond that, hey, age is just a number.

Source:  Jeff Macke www.minyanville.com



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