Steven Bauer: Forecasting Industry Groups and Commodities i.e. their ETFs is very similar to doing my Analytics on any Sector or grouping of securities. For me it is more fun but it requires much more time and has many more factors to consider. When you find a Buy, you usually have a very profitable opportunity. That’s why I do my Forecasting so diligently and have for decades.
Some Analysts do their jobs consistently well and others do not, it is just that simple.
My Basic Views on the Natural Gas Industry
As I’ve mentioned in my Rotation Model article, all securities move from Bullish to Bearish and back again to Bullish just like the U.S. Indices / Global Indices / Sectors / Industry Groups and all Companies and ETFs. There are always current Big Winners and unfortunately always current BIG Losers – the trick is to be able to sort “calculate” (see above) the current Favorable from the current Un-Favorable (please study the table below).
My focus is “WHEN.” At this time there is a discrepancy between the Index and the ETFs. That presents a situation that it is always prudent to simple step aside and wait for the Index, the Companies and the ETFs to all be in sync.
You may want to read my Performance article on Gold: Gold 5 – Year Performance
Natural Gas has not been, I said “has not been” a great place to have invested your money in recent years. However, my Forecasts are suggesting that opportunities may be falling in place.
The Table below shares my Component Natural Gas Indicators, a couple ETFs and a select list of component Companies. At this time, in their Bullish / Bearish Cycle they are not doing well, and have some clear negative variances or divergence in my Analytics of how they Forecast for the foreseeable future.
Note: There are many more combinations of the above information with in my Forecasting / Analytic procedures. That ALL MUST BE IN PLACE before any investment decision can be prudently made. My Notes for Table will offer help to understand my Methodology of “Investing Wisely.” I hope this will provide you with guidance and future profitability.
Prudent Investment Decisions
It is too early to Buy. At this time frame, Natural Gas is in a Bearish to Neutral Cycle. My ongoing General Market Bullish and Bearish Inflection Point Analytics presents Investment Opportunities only a few times per year. I hope that you are a Patient and Disciplined investor.
My work/analytics starts with Forecasting and ends with very selective Formal Recommendations for my Clients. In between it is a matter of waiting for the next General Market / Sectors / Industry Groups to offer a new Bullish or Bearish Inflection Point / Cycle.