New Treasury Snapshot

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November 22, 2013 12:31pm NYSE:TBT NYSE:TLT

market outlookDoug Short: I’ve updated the charts below through yesterday’s close. The yield on the 10-year note stood at 2.79%, which is 136 bps above its 1.43% all-time closing low on July 25th of last year but 19 bps below its interim closing high on September 5th.


The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released yesterday, puts the 30-year fixed at 4.22%, 91 bps above its all-time low of 3.31% in late November of last year but 36 bps below its interim high reported on August 22nd.


Here is a snapshot of the 10-year yield and the 30-year fixed mortgage since 2008.

A log-scale snapshot of the 10-year yield offers a more accurate view of the relative change over time. Here is a long look since 1965, starting well before the 1973 Oil Embargo that triggered the era of “stagflation” (economic stagnation with inflation). I’ve drawn a trendline connecting the interim highs following those stagflationary years. The red line starts with the 1987 closing high on the Friday before the notorious Black Monday market crash. The S&P 500 fell 5.16% that Friday and 20.47% on Black Monday.

Here is a long look back, courtesy of a FRED graph, of the Freddie Mac weekly survey on the 30-year fixed mortgage, which began in May of 1976.

A Perspective on Yields Since 2007

The first chart shows the daily performance of several Treasuries and the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. The source for the yields is the Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates from the US Department of the Treasury and the New York Fed’s website for the FFR.

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Click for a larger image

Now let’s see the 10-year against the S&P 500 with some notes on Federal Reserve intervention. Fed policy has been a major influence on market behavior.

Click to View

Click for a larger image

For a long-term view of weekly Treasury yields, also focusing on the 10-year, see my Treasury Yields in Perspective, which I update on weekends.

This article is brought to you courtesy of Doug Short from Advisor Perspectives.


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